After a season that saw the New England Patriots surge all the way to the Super Bowl - their most successful campaign since the Tom Brady era - the buzz around Foxborough has cooled considerably. Despite the momentum, there’s a growing belief among analysts that New England could be due for a step back in 2026. And based on the landscape of the AFC, that skepticism isn’t unfounded.
On a recent episode of The Herd, Colin Cowherd didn’t mince words when placing the Patriots among his five teams likely to regress next season.
“14-3 is not happening,” Cowherd said. “The AFC is gonna be much better.
The Chiefs will be better. The Chargers will be better.
Cincinnati. Baltimore.
Jacksonville is only getting better in Liam Coen’s second year. They’re not going 14-3.”
He’s not wrong to flag the AFC’s rising tide. Injuries to marquee quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow last season created a rare window of opportunity. With those stars expected to be back at full strength, the conference instantly becomes more competitive - and more unforgiving.
Cowherd projected the Patriots to land closer to 10 or 11 wins in 2026, citing offensive line concerns as a key variable. That unit, while serviceable during the regular season, showed cracks against elite pass rushes - and those cracks widened under the bright lights of the postseason.
The Super Bowl loss to the Seattle Seahawks was a sobering reality check. New England looked outmatched in key areas, particularly in the trenches and on third downs. The offense, which had found rhythm late in the season, struggled to protect the quarterback and generate explosive plays against a fast, physical Seattle defense.
Cowherd added, “Let’s be honest. If Bo Nix plays, they probably don’t make the Super Bowl.
They were completely overwhelmed by Seattle. It wasn’t necessarily close.”
That might be a bit of a reach - after all, playoff football is as much about momentum and matchups as it is about rosters on paper - but the point stands: the Patriots didn’t look like they belonged on the same field as the Seahawks in that game.
Still, it’s not all doom and gloom in New England. Head coach Mike Vrabel has brought a new edge to the team, and rookie quarterback Drake Maye showed flashes of why he was a top pick.
The foundation is solid. But in a conference stacked with elite quarterbacks, innovative offensive minds, and deep rosters, being “solid” isn’t always enough.
The Patriots also benefited from what was statistically one of the softest schedules in recent NFL history. That won’t be the case in 2026. With a first-place schedule looming and a target on their backs, the margin for error shrinks dramatically.
They’re still a playoff-caliber team - that much seems clear. But if the expectation is another Super Bowl run, the road will be far steeper this time around.
Much of their trajectory will hinge on how the front office addresses key roster needs this offseason, particularly along the offensive line. But even with upgrades, the Patriots will be navigating a far more treacherous AFC landscape.
In short: New England’s 2025 campaign was a statement. But 2026 will be a test - one that will reveal just how close this team is to truly being back among the NFL’s elite.