The Houston Texans and New England Patriots are set to square off in a divisional round clash that brings plenty of intrigue on both sides of the ball. When these two teams met back in Week 6 of the 2024 season, Drake Maye was just getting his feet wet as the Patriots’ starting quarterback. Fast forward to now, and Maye isn't just comfortable-he’s a legitimate MVP candidate leading a resurgent New England squad that reclaimed the AFC East and is back in the playoff mix.
The Texans have grown in their own right. Their defense, in particular, has evolved into one of the league’s most disruptive units-built to frustrate quarterbacks, shut down receivers, and force teams to win in uncomfortable ways. This matchup has all the makings of a defensive slugfest, and if you like chess matches on the gridiron, buckle up.
Let’s dig into what makes this Texans team tick, and what the Patriots will need to do if they want to keep their postseason run alive.
Cracking the Code: How to Move the Ball on Houston
First thing’s first-no defense is bulletproof. But Houston's group is about as close as it gets right now when it comes to locking down the outside.
Their corners have been elite all season long, and they’ve made a habit of erasing wide receivers from the game plan. That puts pressure on opposing offenses to get creative.
For New England, that means leaning into their tight ends-not just as blockers, but as weapons. While the Patriots might be tempted to keep their TEs in to help with pass protection, that could actually play into Houston’s hands.
The Texans have shown some vulnerability against tight ends in coverage, especially when their safeties get stretched. Jalen Pitre and Calen Bullock are solid, but beyond them, the depth thins out quickly.
Another area to watch: quarterback scrambles. Houston’s aggressive front can sometimes over-pursue, leaving lanes open for mobile quarterbacks to exploit. They’ve given up a handful of back-breaking 20+ yard scrambles this season, and Drake Maye has the legs to make them pay if the opportunity presents itself.
Underrated Playmakers on the Texans Defense
When you think about Houston’s defense, names like Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. immediately come to mind-and for good reason. But this unit’s strength is in its depth and balance.
Let’s start with the secondary. Jalen Pitre didn’t get a Pro Bowl nod, but he probably should have.
For several weeks, he was the highest-graded safety in the league per Pro Football Focus. Bullock has been a steady presence alongside him, and together they’ve helped solidify the back end.
At corner, Derek Stingley Jr. earned first-team All-Pro honors, but don’t overlook Kamari Lassiter. Quietly, he may have had an even better season, locking down his side of the field and rarely getting beat over the top.
Up front, the Texans rotate edge rushers like a hockey line change-and it works. Beyond the headliners, guys like Derek Barnett and Denico Autry have provided quality reps, keeping the pressure on quarterbacks from start to finish.
Inside, Sheldon Rankins and Tommy Togai have held their own, even if the interior depth isn’t quite as deep. Still, everyone they put on the field can collapse the pocket, and that’s a problem for any offense.
Offensive Growth: Surviving Injuries and Finding Balance
Houston’s offense hasn’t been flashy, but it’s been efficient-and that’s been enough. The biggest early-season blow came when Joe Mixon went down.
The Texans didn’t panic. Instead, they leaned more heavily on Woody Marks in the second half of the year, and he’s delivered.
No one in the Texans backfield is lighting up the stat sheet, but during their 10-game win streak, the ground game has done its job.
What really stands out, though, is ball security. Houston finished the regular season with the fewest turnovers in the league.
That’s not an accident. C.J.
Stroud has mostly avoided the big mistakes, and the offense as a whole has been disciplined. Monday night wasn’t his best outing, but more often than not, this is a group that plays clean football.
The Ground Game vs. New England’s Front
Against the Steelers, Houston’s run game finally found its rhythm. The offensive line, which had struggled for much of the year, looked sharper-thanks in part to some key personnel changes. The pairing of Marks and Nick Chubb gave the Texans a physical edge, and they wore down Pittsburgh’s front over four quarters.
That said, consistency has been elusive. During the regular season, Houston ranked 30th in pass block win rate and dead last-yes, 32nd-in run block win rate.
That’s not exactly a recipe for playoff success. Monday night was a step in the right direction, but replicating that performance against a healthy Patriots defense is a tall order.
If the line holds up again, the Texans have a real shot. But that’s a big “if.”
Prediction Time: Who Comes Out on Top?
This one feels like it’s going to be a defensive grind. The over/under is sitting at 41.5, but with the way these two defenses are playing, the under looks mighty tempting.
Houston has never won a divisional round playoff game-not once since 1980. That’s a tough stat to ignore.
This time around, they’re not massive underdogs, and they’ve got the talent to break through. But until they do it, it’s hard to pick them with confidence.
Expect a tight, low-scoring affair. Something in the ballpark of 17-14 feels right. The Patriots have the edge in playoff experience, and with Maye playing at an MVP level, they’ve got just enough firepower to squeak by.
But make no mistake-this Texans team is no longer just a feel-good story. They’re legit. And if they can finally get over the divisional round hump, the rest of the league better take notice.