The Patriots’ path to a second straight win starts with the simplest rule in football: don’t hand the Raiders extra chances.
New England is back in the playoff conversation after upsetting the Buffalo Bills, and a win Sunday would push Mike Vrabel’s team to 3-2 while adding real momentum after an uneven start. But Las Vegas brings a very specific kind of danger.
Through four games, the Raiders lead the NFL with nine takeaways, including four interceptions and five fumble recoveries, while the Patriots have coughed it up 10 times, tied for worst in the league. That’s the kind of matchup that can get away from you fast if the ball isn’t protected.
There were at least some encouraging signs from Drake Maye in last week’s win. He turned it over twice against Buffalo, but both mistakes were easier to live with than the rough decisions he made over the first three games.
One was a strip sack, and the other came on an interception off an unlucky bounce. New England obviously wants cleaner football than that, but the takeaway is that Maye may be moving in the right direction.
That matters because this is not the kind of opponent you want feeding off short fields and momentum swings. The Raiders have shown they can turn giveaways into a game-changing edge.
Protection up front is another major issue. Maxx Crosby remains the headliner, and for good reason.
He’s one of the league’s most disruptive edge rushers, and the kind of player who can wreck an offense if you let him dictate terms. Malcolm Koonce and Kwity Paye also have enough juice to cause problems, which means the Patriots can’t just set their eyes on Crosby and hope for the best.
That edge group, paired with an aggressive pressure scheme, can absolutely tilt the game.
New England has options here. Chips and double teams can help offensive tackles Will Campbell and Morgan Moses.
Josh McDaniels can also choose a different route and attack the middle instead. Tonka Hemingway, Folorunso Fatukasi and Adam Butler are solid players, but the drop-off from the edge to the interior is real.
If the Patriots can avoid the Raiders’ pressure and lean on the run game, they can make that part of the defense work against itself.
That’s not a small detail, either. Las Vegas is sixth in EPA allowed per rush at -0.183, but it’s also 31st in the league in rush yards per attempt at 5.2.
The Raiders’ turnovers are propping up the advanced numbers. If New England protects the ball, there should be room to push that defense where it is more vulnerable than the rankings suggest.
On the other side of the ball, the Patriots have to deal with Brock Bowers, who is very much the engine of the Raiders’ offense even though he ranks third on the team in catches with 16 and second in both yards with 202 and touchdowns with 2. Vrabel put it plainly this week: “What he does at his size, the speed, the route craft, and being able to catch at the catch point - he’s like a big slot receiver,” Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel said about Bowers this week. “He has downfield speed, he runs outward breaking routes, he runs routes like a receiver, but then also he’s got the ability to double guys up inside.”
For New England, the assignment is straightforward: make Bowers less dangerous and force Kirk Cousins into a tougher game. Cousins thrives on rhythm.
He lives on timing, quick decisions and throwing to what a defense gives him. At this stage, he is not built to create extended plays or improvise much when things break down.
Without a wide receiver who can really stress defenses deep, Las Vegas leans on underneath throws, which shows up in its 18th-ranked 7.1 yards per pass play.
That setup points to a steady diet of Bowers and Michael Mayer, who gives the Raiders a more traditional in-line tight end look. No team in the NFL is using more 12-personnel than Las Vegas, so the Patriots need to stay sound in zone coverage and avoid putting their personnel in bad spots. If they can do that, they give themselves a real shot to keep the Raiders from settling in and controlling the game.
In Other News...
Patriots Offense Just Put More Pressure On Drake Maye
The Patriots offense took another hit heading into a pivotal stretch, with New England adjusting its lineup as it prepares for a Week 5 meeting with the Raiders. Sitting at 2-2, the team is trying to stabilize a unit that has already been forced to adapt early in the season, and the timing matters with another game against the Bears coming up on Oct. 22.
Reggie Gilliam and Mack Hollins are both out of the picture for now, which narrows the options around Drake Maye and puts more on his plate in a matchup where the offense could use a clean, organized showing. For a Patriots team still searching for rhythm, the next couple of weeks will say plenty about how well it can absorb roster changes without losing ground. [Read more 🡒]
Patriots May Need An Unlikely Answer To A Growing Offensive Concern
Mack Hollins has become a growing concern for the Patriots this week after missing consecutive practices with a calf injury, putting his status for Sunday against the Raiders in doubt. With A.J. Brown still on injured reserve, New Englands margin for error at receiver is getting thinner, and the team may need to lean harder on whatever options are available to keep the passing game functional.
One of those options could be Eli Raridon, who took a season-high 44 snaps last week and has been productive in limited chances. He is healthy for the upcoming game after working through a thigh issue earlier, and he even lined up wide on five of his 23 pass snaps against Buffalo, a hint that the Patriots could ask him to stretch beyond his usual role if Hollins is unavailable. [Read more 🡒]
Patriots Secondary Suddenly Faces A Depth Test They Couldn't Avoid
The Patriots secondary is heading into Week 5 with plenty of uncertainty, and Charles Woods is part of the reason there is at least a little relief on the injury front. Woods had been listed questionable with a shoulder issue, but he has been cleared to play, giving New England one more body to work with as it prepares for the Raiders.
Even with that bit of good news, the picture remains thin. New England ruled out four cornerbacks and will be without Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis, along with backups Channing Canada and Karon Prunty, leaving the defense to patch together a depth chart against a Las Vegas group that wont have receiver Jalen Nailor but does have Ashton Jeanty available. [Read more 🡒]