The AFC East picture for 2026 is already taking shape, and the early buzz says the New England Patriots have work to do to keep their grip on the division.
Fox Sports’ Will Hill has the Buffalo Bills as the betting favorite to reclaim the top spot, which hardly comes as a shock with Josh Allen still steering the ship. Allen remains the kind of quarterback who keeps a team in the race every season, and Hill pointed to Buffalo’s consistency as a major reason to expect the Bills back on top.
“The Bills had won this division five consecutive years until last season, when the New England Patriots unseated the Bills on their way to another AFC championship. But last year, the Patriots had a pillow-soft schedule, playing just four of their 17 games against teams that would go on to make the playoffs...Bills quarterback Josh Allen is one of the league’s best and most durable players.
While his teams have yet to get over the hump and win - or even play in - a Super Bowl, he’s a regular-season winning machine. With Allen, the Bills have won 10 or more games every year except for his rookie year in 2018. With the Patriots' difficult schedule and the consistency of the Bills, I like the AFC East to once again go back to the Bills for what would be a sixth division title in seven years.”
That logic is easy to follow. Buffalo has the proven quarterback, and the Patriots are staring at a tougher road after winning the division in 2025. Plenty of people have already latched onto that schedule as the reason New England could slide back.
But the Patriots are no longer the same team they were in 2024, and Drake Maye is the reason. He gave New England the kind of quarterback play that changes everything in 2025, finishing with an NFL-best 72% completion rate and the league’s top passer rating. He also brings another layer to the offense with his legs, making him a dual threat in the same conversation as Allen.
The styles are different, but the impact is similar. Allen can wear defenses down with power.
Maye can break them with quickness and big plays in space. Either way, both quarterbacks give their teams a real chance every week.
New England’s 2026 schedule will be tougher, no question. But the division may come down less to the schedule itself and more to which team did a better job adding support around its quarterback this offseason.
The Patriots made a major move by trading for A.J. Brown, giving Maye a true No. 1 receiver.
They also added Romeo Doubs as a reliable No. 2.
That pair gives New England a much stronger passing attack, and both are upgrades over the players the Patriots had in those roles in 2025.
So while the odds may lean Buffalo’s way right now, the Patriots have enough firepower to make the AFC East race interesting again in 2026.
In Other News...
Jets Turmoil Could Open A Huge Door For The Patriots
The early AFC East forecasts already have Buffalo on top and New England penciled in behind the Bills, but the division could still get a lot more interesting if the Jets keep spinning their wheels. One of the leagues more respected offseason takes points to Garrett Wilson as a player worth watching, and the reasoning is familiar: New York still lacks a clear long-term answer at quarterback, which can wear on a receiver who is supposed to be the centerpiece of the offense.
For the Patriots, that kind of unrest matters because it could reshape the division landscape they are trying to climb. A Wilson exit would not just be another Jets headache, it would remove one of the more dangerous weapons New England has to deal with twice a year, and it would do it at a time when the Patriots are trying to turn a projected second-place finish into something more meaningful. [Read more 🡒]
ESPN Is Already Doubting The Patriots' AFC East Surge
ESPNs early look at the 2026 AFC East race does not leave much room for doubt about where the national consensus sits. Most of the networks panel is backing Buffalo to keep control of the division, which makes Bostons Mike Reiss stand out as the lone voice seeing a different path for New England after a season that already pushed expectations higher.
Reiss is betting on the Patriots offense to keep climbing, with Drake Mayes continued development and A.J. Brown stepping in as the kind of top target that can change the shape of the unit. It is the sort of forecast that makes sense if the key pieces keep moving in the right direction, but it also leaves the familiar question hanging over Foxborough: whether the Patriots have enough around those two to make the pick look bold instead of premature. [Read more 🡒]
Patriots Still Have One Defensive Weak Spot They May Need To Fix
The Patriots went into the offseason with a defense that already looked sturdy at the top, then doubled down by keeping nine of last years 11 starters and adding DreMont Jones and Kevin Byard. On paper, that is the kind of retention and reinforcement that should keep New England competitive on that side of the ball, especially with established talent at the core and fewer obvious holes than in recent years.
Still, the concern around the unit is not the first string, it is what comes after it. Depth remains the lingering question, and that is why the Patriots have been connected to a veteran safety who can move around the formation and help in a pinch. He is not being viewed as a long-term fix, but for a team trying to protect itself against injuries and thin spots, he could be the sort of low-cost addition that makes sense if New England decides it needs one more layer of insurance. [Read more 🡒]