When the 2026 NFL season kicks off, every team technically starts with the same shot at Super Bowl LXI - a clean 6.25% chance. But we all know the real odds aren’t that simple.
Talent, coaching, schedule, and a little bit of luck shape the road to February football. And when it comes to the New England Patriots, there’s a lot to unpack.
On paper, the Patriots are entering 2026 with two major pillars in place: a 23-year-old quarterback in Drake Maye who just finished as the MVP runner-up, and Mike Vrabel, the AP Coach of the Year, steering the ship. That’s a strong foundation - the kind of combination that usually earns a team more than just a passing mention in early Super Bowl conversations. But not everyone’s buying in.
In a recent breakdown, one analyst gave the Patriots just a 5% chance of making it back to the big game next February. That’s a full notch below the baseline odds and a far cry from the 30% he assigned to the defending champion Seattle Seahawks.
The reasoning? A much tougher road ahead.
Let’s start with the schedule. The Patriots benefited from one of the softest slates in the league in 2025 - a factor that helped fuel their surprise rise.
That’s about to change. In 2026, New England is set to face 11 teams that finished above .500, plus the Kansas City Chiefs, who despite a 6-11 record remain one of the most dangerous teams in the league when healthy and motivated.
For context, only three of the Patriots’ opponents last season finished with winning records. So yeah, the road’s about to get steeper.
Then there’s the roster. While Maye showed flashes of brilliance in his first full season, there’s no denying the offense still has holes.
The offensive line needs reinforcements, and Maye could use a true top-tier weapon on the outside. The Patriots will be picking late in every round of the 2026 NFL Draft - a side effect of their success - which makes it harder to land immediate-impact players.
And with elite cornerback Christian Gonzalez due for a big extension, cap space could get tight fast.
Vrabel deserves a ton of credit for injecting life back into this franchise. He brought an edge, a sense of identity, and a belief that this team could punch above its weight.
But sustaining that momentum is a different challenge altogether. Just ask the 2024 Commanders, who went from surprise darlings to struggling to replicate their success the following year.
There’s no question the Patriots are trending in the right direction. Drake Maye looks like the real deal, and Vrabel has proven he can lead a locker room and outcoach opponents. But the NFL doesn’t hand out repeat success - it has to be earned, week in and week out, against increasingly tougher competition.
So is a 5% Super Bowl chance fair? Maybe.
Maybe not. But one thing’s clear: the Patriots are no longer flying under the radar.
And with expectations rising, how they respond to a tougher schedule and higher stakes will define their 2026 campaign.