The New England Patriots may have flirted with disaster in Baltimore last Sunday, but they walked away with a gutsy win-and with it, a playoff berth and a one-game cushion atop the AFC East. That win didn’t just keep their postseason hopes alive-it kept them in the driver’s seat for a division title. And with head coach Mike Vrabel having made winning the East a clear mission since Day 1, the Patriots now have a chance to wrap it up this weekend.
But they’ll need a little help. For New England to officially clinch the AFC East on Sunday, two things have to happen: Buffalo needs to lose at home to the Eagles, and the Patriots need to handle business on the road against the 3-12 New York Jets.
On paper, this looks like a mismatch-the Patriots are 13.5-point favorites-but this is the NFL. Nothing is guaranteed, especially in a rivalry game, and New England can’t afford to take its foot off the gas.
Let’s break down where things stand heading into this crucial matchup.
Passing Game
Patriots Pass Offense vs. Jets Pass Defense
This is where New England has a clear upper hand. The Jets' pass defense has been a mess all season, and the numbers back that up.
They're 30th in the league in expected points added per dropback, and their pass rush has been virtually nonexistent-29th in sacks, 30th in pressure rate. That’s a recipe for disaster against a quarterback like Drake Maye, who’s playing like a seasoned vet and already drawing MVP buzz.
The Jets’ secondary hasn’t helped matters. Trading away Sauce Gardner left a massive hole in the back end, and injuries have forced them to rotate through a patchwork unit.
The result? Zero interceptions on the season.
That’s not a typo. Zero.
Against a quarterback like Maye, that’s a red flag the size of MetLife Stadium. Even with some injury concerns on New England’s offense, this is a matchup that heavily favors the Patriots.
Edge: Patriots
Patriots Pass Defense vs. Jets Pass Offense
On the flip side, the Jets' passing game is in rough shape. Brady Cook, an undrafted rookie, has been thrown into the fire, and he’s trying to make it work without his top playmakers.
Garrett Wilson is out, and tight end Mason Taylor might be joining him on the sideline. That’s a tough ask for any quarterback, let alone a rookie.
Cook’s protection hasn’t been terrible-he’s only been pressured on about a quarter of his dropbacks-but when the heat does come, he’s struggled mightily. Seventeen sacks on 89 dropbacks is an alarming rate, and a 53.1% pressure-to-sack ratio is practically unheard of. Add in seven turnovers in just three appearances, and this feels like a golden opportunity for New England’s defense to assert itself.
If the Patriots want to build momentum heading into the playoffs, this is the kind of game where the pass rush and secondary need to feast.
Edge: Patriots
Running Game
Patriots Rushing Offense vs. Jets Run Defense
Good news for New England: TreVeyon Henderson is back at practice. That’s a big boost, especially with left guard Jared Wilson still in concussion protocol. The Patriots don’t need to dominate on the ground to win this game, but having Henderson available-paired with a rested Rhamondre Stevenson, who missed the first meeting-adds some real punch to the backfield.
The Jets’ run defense hasn’t been anything to fear. They’re giving up 4.4 yards per carry, rank 24th in EPA per run, and have allowed 18 rushing touchdowns-25th in the league. They held their own in the first matchup, but with no major upgrades since then and Stevenson now in the mix, the Patriots should be able to find success on the ground.
Edge: Patriots
Patriots Run Defense vs. Jets Rushing Offense
This is one area where New York has a legitimate shot to make an impact. Even if Milton Williams suits up for New England, the Patriots are expected to be without Khyiris Tonga and Robert Spillane-two key pieces in the middle of the defense.
The Jets, meanwhile, have quietly put together a respectable ground game. They’re averaging 4.6 yards per carry and have one of the league’s most explosive backs in Breece Hall.
If Hall gets going early, he could keep the Patriots’ defense on its heels and help take some pressure off Cook. New England’s run defense has been inconsistent all year, and this matchup could expose that vulnerability again.
Edge: Jets
Special Teams
New England’s special teams have been a rollercoaster this season. When they’re good, they’re really good. But when things go sideways-as they did in Week 15 against Buffalo-the results can be costly.
The Jets don’t have an elite special teams unit, but they’ve already shown they can win this phase of the game. In their Week 11 meeting, Marcus Jones was forced to fair-catch all four punts, and the Jets outgained the Patriots on kick returns.
Oh, and they’ve got Nick Folk, who’s quietly leading the league in both field goal percentage (96.4%) and extra point accuracy (100%). That kind of consistency matters in close games.
Edge: Jets
Coaching
There’s been some shakeup on the Jets’ sideline since these teams last met. Defensive coordinator Steve Wilks is out, and Chris Harris has stepped in. While Harris is well-respected, midseason coaching changes rarely translate to immediate success-especially on a defense that’s already struggling.
On the other side, Mike Vrabel has kept this Patriots team steady through injuries, close calls, and tough stretches. His staff hasn’t been perfect, but the game planning has been solid, and the team plays with a clear identity. In a matchup where coaching could swing a few key moments, the advantage goes to Vrabel and company.
Edge: Patriots
Final Verdict
The Jets are a 3-12 team for a reason, but they’re not completely toothless. Breece Hall can break a game open, and their special teams have shown flashes. But when you stack these rosters side by side, it’s clear New England has the upper hand-especially at quarterback, in the trenches, and on the sidelines.
The Patriots know what’s at stake. A win keeps them in control of the AFC East, and with the playoffs looming, this isn’t the time for stumbles. If they play to their strengths and avoid self-inflicted wounds, they should walk out of MetLife with a win-and maybe, just maybe, a division title.
Anything less would be a letdown.