As we enter the final stretch of the NFL regular season, the AFC playoff picture is starting to come into sharper focus-and the New England Patriots are right in the thick of it. At 11-2, they’re not just knocking on the postseason door-they’re practically holding the key.
While they haven’t officially clinched a playoff berth just yet, they could lock it up as early as this week. And even if things don’t fall their way immediately, the odds of them missing out are slim to none.
The real question isn’t if they’ll make the playoffs-it’s where they’ll be seeded when they get there.
Right now, New England sits atop the AFC standings, and projections give them a 49% chance to secure the No. 1 seed. But before anyone starts printing playoff tickets or dreaming of a bye week and home-field advantage, let’s pump the brakes. The road ahead is far from a cakewalk.
The Patriots’ final four games include matchups against three teams still firmly in the playoff hunt-starting with a Week 15 showdown against the 9-4 Buffalo Bills. That game alone could swing the momentum in the AFC East and shift the balance of power in the conference.
Strength of Schedule: A Closer Look
Let’s talk numbers. Through their first 13 games, the Patriots have had the softest schedule in the league.
Their opponents have combined for a win percentage of just .349. That’s about as friendly a path as you could ask for.
But the next four weeks? Not quite as forgiving.
Their remaining opponents are a combined 24-28, a .462 win percentage. It’s still not murderers’ row, but it’s a step up in competition-and a test this team hasn’t faced consistently all season.
That said, compared to their biggest challenger for the top seed-the Denver Broncos-New England’s slate looks manageable. The Broncos also sit at 11-2, but their remaining schedule is a gauntlet.
They’ll face three winning teams and the three-time reigning conference champs. Their final four opponents have a combined win percentage of .635, one of the toughest closing stretches in the league.
Then there’s the Indianapolis Colts, who are in full-on survival mode. They’ve dropped three straight and just lost their starting quarterback for the rest of the season.
Now they’re staring down a brutal four-game stretch against four current playoff teams with a combined win percentage of .692. That’s a nightmare scenario for a team already on the ropes.
The Wild Cards in the Race
Buffalo is another team to keep an eye on. They’re two games behind New England and face off against the Patriots this weekend in a game that could have major seeding implications.
Beyond that, the Bills’ schedule includes two of the worst teams in the league and a Philadelphia Eagles squad that’s lost three straight. On paper, their remaining opponents have a .481 win percentage, but that number doesn’t tell the whole story.
Buffalo could very well run the table if they catch the right breaks-and that makes them a dangerous threat down the stretch.
Other AFC contenders like the Jaguars, Chargers, Texans, and Steelers all have their own paths to the postseason, but none are as favorable-or as pivotal-as the one New England is currently navigating.
What’s at Stake for the Patriots
For head coach Mike Vrabel and his team, the mission is clear: take care of business and let the rest sort itself out. They’re in control of their own destiny, and that’s exactly where you want to be in December.
With a strong finish, the Patriots could secure the top seed, a first-round bye, and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. That’s a massive edge in a conference as competitive as the AFC.
But there’s no room for cruise control. The margin for error is razor-thin, and every snap from here on out could shape the postseason landscape. The Patriots have been efficient, disciplined, and opportunistic all year-but now comes the real test.
They’ve played their way into the driver’s seat. Now we’ll find out if they can steer this thing all the way to the top.