Patriots Eye Playoff Push After Bye, But Key Issues Still Loom
The Patriots are back in Foxborough after their Week 13 bye, sitting in second place in the AFC with 11 wins-tied for the most in the league. It’s a remarkable turnaround under head coach Mike Vrabel, and now New England is not just in the playoff picture-they’re in the thick of the AFC East title race.
Drake Maye has gone from promising rookie to full-on MVP candidate in just his second season. The Patriots are winning games, and the conversation has shifted from rebuilding to contending. But as they gear up for a critical stretch in December and beyond, there are still a few areas where this team needs to tighten up if they want to be playing deep into January-and maybe even February.
Let’s break down the three biggest concerns heading into the home stretch.
1. The Run Game - Both Sides of It
Early in the season, New England’s run defense was flat-out dominant. Through the first nine weeks, no opposing running back cracked the 50-yard mark. That streak ended when Buccaneers rookie Sean Tucker broke through, and since then, the Patriots have struggled to recapture that early-season form.
Over the last four games, they’ve ranked dead last in run defense success rate, giving up an extra 1.3 yards per carry (up to 4.9) compared to their first nine outings. A big part of the issue?
Injuries up front. Star defensive tackle Milton Williams has been sidelined with an ankle injury, and nose tackle Khyiris Tonga suffered a chest injury in Week 12.
Without them, the interior has been more vulnerable, and opposing backs are finding daylight where there used to be a brick wall.
The good news? Williams is on injured reserve but expected back, and Tonga was at least present-albeit limited-at Monday’s practice. With a week off to regroup and reinforcements potentially on the way, there’s hope the run defense can get back to its early-season standard.
Offensively, the run game hasn’t been much better. Despite a recent spark from rookie TreVeyon Henderson, New England still ranks near the bottom of the league in most rushing metrics. Short-yardage situations have been especially problematic, forcing offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to dig into his bag of tricks-unbalanced lines, six offensive linemen, even some wildcat looks-in a recent win over the Giants.
Now, with both Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson healthy, the Patriots may look to lean more into outside zone concepts and even get Drake Maye’s legs more involved. That added dimension could be a difference-maker, especially in tight games down the stretch.
2. Red Zone Woes
The Patriots' red zone offense hit a low point in Cincinnati, where they ran eight plays inside the five-yard line and came away with zero points. That sequence was a microcosm of a larger issue: New England is struggling to finish drives.
On the season, they rank 25th in red zone touchdown percentage (just over 51%), 26th in success rate, and 27th in expected points added per play. Those numbers reflect a consistent inability to turn good drives into great ones.
A lot of that goes back to the run game. Heading into Week 13, the Patriots were 30th in red zone rushing success rate. In other words, when it’s time to punch it in, they haven’t been able to move the pile.
“You have to have positive plays. You can’t go backwards.
You can’t have penalties that derail drives,” Vrabel said this week. “Precision is critical - that space is limited.
Things happen so much quicker down there. So, we’ll have to score, turn those opportunities into touchdowns and we’ll have to do a better job defensively when they do get down there.”
Vrabel’s not wrong to point to the defense, either. The Patriots are allowing touchdowns on 73% of red zone trips-worst in the league.
They’re also 30th in success rate and 31st in EPA/play in that area. Even more alarming: opponents have scored a touchdown on every goal-to-go opportunity this season.
That’s the kind of stat that can sink a playoff run if it doesn’t get corrected.
3. Health - A Growing Concern
For most of the season, New England had been relatively lucky on the injury front. Outside of star cornerback Christian Gonzalez missing the first three games with a hamstring issue, the team had avoided major setbacks.
But in Week 11, that started to change. Milton Williams went to IR, and then came the Cincinnati game, which brought a wave of injuries-including starting left tackle Will Campbell, who also landed on IR.
There’s some optimism, though. Left guard Jared Wilson and special teams ace Brenden Schooler, both of whom missed the Giants game, were back at practice Monday.
Tonga and linebacker Robert Spillane were limited, but they’re still in the mix. Spillane, in particular, saw his snap count dip significantly in Week 13, which Vrabel attributed to trying to manage workloads late in the season.
“I think that just playing everybody and where we are in the season - Harold [Landry III] was in that category as well,” Vrabel said. “So, we’ve got a lot of trust in everybody that’s here, and be ready to go and just try to get everybody ready for this next week.”
With playoff positioning on the line, the Patriots will need all hands on deck. The potential returns of Williams and Campbell from IR could be huge, especially in the trenches where games are often won or lost this time of year.
The Bottom Line
The Patriots have put themselves in position to make a legitimate playoff run, and maybe more. Drake Maye is playing like a star, the defense has shown flashes of dominance, and Vrabel has this team believing again.
But if New England wants to go from contender to true threat in the AFC, they’ll need to clean up the run game on both sides of the ball, find answers in the red zone, and get healthier in the trenches.
The pieces are there. Now it’s about putting it all together-because in December, the margin for error gets razor-thin.