Patriots Face Tough Test in Baltimore, But Playoff Path Still Clear
FOXBORO, Mass. - Mike Vrabel isn’t one to sugarcoat things, and he certainly didn’t this week. The Patriots head coach knows exactly what kind of challenge awaits his team on Sunday night in Baltimore. The Ravens are playing with urgency, led by a two-time MVP quarterback, and they’re stacked with talent on both sides of the ball.
Vrabel gave high praise to Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton, calling him “one of the best players in this league.” That’s not hyperbole.
Hamilton’s range, instincts, and versatility have made him one of the most disruptive defensive backs in football this season. And then there’s Derrick Henry - the bruising back Vrabel knows all too well from their six seasons together in Tennessee.
Henry’s not just a battering ram; he's a tone-setter, and he’ll be looking to do just that under the lights in Baltimore.
“They’re playing well, they’re playing with a lot of confidence, and it’ll be a huge test,” Vrabel said.
And he’s right - on paper, this one looks like a heavyweight bout. But here’s the twist: the stakes for the Patriots, at least in terms of playoff positioning, aren’t as high as you might think.
According to playoff projections, a win bumps New England’s chances of winning the AFC East to 82%. But even with a loss, they’re still sitting at 65%. So while Sunday night’s outcome matters, it doesn’t define the season.
Division Showdowns Loom Large
The real make-or-break games are coming in the final two weeks - divisional matchups against the Jets in New York and the Dolphins at home. Win both, and the Patriots clinch the AFC East, no matter what happens elsewhere. Those games will do more to shape New England’s postseason fate than anything that happens in Baltimore.
That said, Sunday night still holds weight. A win or tie against the Ravens would officially punch the Patriots’ ticket to the postseason.
They could also clinch if the Texans tie or lose to the Raiders, or if the Colts fall to the 49ers on Monday Night Football. So yes, there are multiple paths, but the cleanest one is to take care of business themselves.
Chasing the Bye, But Eyes on the Two Seed
There’s still a slim shot at the AFC’s top seed and the coveted first-round bye - about a 10% chance, per projections. But that scenario would require the Patriots to win out and the Broncos to stumble down the stretch, going 1-2 against a gauntlet of the Jaguars, Chiefs, and Chargers. It’s not impossible, but it’s a long shot.
The more realistic target? The No. 2 seed.
That would mean at least two home playoff games, assuming the Patriots keep advancing. And right now, they’re in a strong position to make that happen.
They’ve got a 73% chance to end the Bills’ five-year reign atop the AFC East. For Buffalo to make a late push, they’d need to sweep their final three games - against the Browns, Eagles, and Jets - a tall order even for a team with playoff pedigree.
Sizing Up Potential Wild Card Opponents
Assuming New England locks in the No. 2 seed, the wild-card round could bring a matchup with one of four teams: the Bills, Chargers, Jaguars, or Texans. Each presents a very different kind of challenge.
Let’s start with Buffalo. From a TV ratings perspective, this is the dream matchup - two division rivals, playoff history, and star power on both sides.
But from a football standpoint, it’s a tough draw. The Bills just erased a 21-0 deficit at Gillette Stadium and walked out with a win.
Their defense may be the weakest of the four potential opponents in terms of expected points added per play, but their offense is elite - second-best in the league by the same metric. And with Josh Allen under center, anything can happen.
Add in their postseason experience, and this is not a team you want to see early.
Then there’s Houston. Their offense isn’t lighting up the scoreboard, but their defense is another story.
Led by edge rushers Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson - arguably the best tandem in the league - the Texans boast the NFL’s top defense in EPA per play and rank third in success rate. If the Patriots are without Will Campbell, protecting the quarterback becomes a major concern.
This would be a slugfest, and one the Patriots would have to win in the trenches.
The Jaguars are flying under the radar but have quietly ripped off five straight wins. First-year head coach Liam Coen has turned Jacksonville into a well-coached, balanced team, even with Trevor Lawrence having a relatively modest season.
The defense is legit - seventh in EPA per play - and since acquiring Jakobi Meyers at the trade deadline, their offense has found a new gear, ranking 13th in EPA per play over that span. They’re not flashy, but they’re dangerous.
And then there’s the Chargers - a team with a top-five defense but serious questions on offense. Injuries along the offensive line have been a major issue, and that could play into New England’s hands.
The Patriots’ pass rush isn’t elite, but against a banged-up front, they might not need to be. Add in the long cross-country trip to Foxboro, and this could be the most favorable matchup of the bunch.
More Than Just Seeding on the Line
So, yes - Sunday night’s game in Baltimore might not drastically shift the playoff picture. But it matters in other ways.
This is a chance for the Patriots to respond after a tough loss, to prove they can hang with - and beat - a top-tier AFC opponent on the road. It’s a chance to build momentum heading into the final stretch, and to show they’re not just playoff-bound, but playoff-ready.
Lose, and it’s back-to-back defeats against potential postseason foes - and the questions about how good this team really is will only get louder.
One way or another, we’ll learn something about the Patriots on Sunday night. And come January, that could matter more than any simulator ever will.