The Patriots are finally catching their breath on a well-earned Week 14 bye - and they’ve certainly earned the rest. Winners of ten straight and currently sitting atop the AFC, New England has flipped the script on what many expected to be another rebuilding year. But as they kick back this Sunday, their grip on the conference’s top seed could quietly slip away - without even taking the field.
Here’s the situation: if the Broncos beat the Raiders this weekend, Denver vaults into the AFC’s No. 1 spot and secures a crucial tiebreaker over New England. That’s not just a small detail - it could end up deciding who gets home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and, more importantly, who gets to skip Wild Card Weekend altogether.
The tiebreaker hinges on common opponents, and that’s where New England’s early-season missteps come back into play. It’s a tough pill to swallow for a team that’s been nearly flawless for two and a half months, but that’s how slim the margins are in December football.
Let’s be clear - the Patriots have already shattered expectations. This is a team that went 4-13 in back-to-back seasons and was pegged by many to hover somewhere around mediocrity again in 2025. Instead, under first-year head coach Mike Vrabel, they’ve become the first team to reach 11 wins this season and look every bit like a legitimate contender.
Vrabel’s impact can’t be overstated. He’s instilled a toughness and discipline that’s brought the best out of a roster that had been searching for direction. The defense is flying around, the offense is efficient and opportunistic, and most importantly, they’re winning the games they’re supposed to win - and a few they weren’t.
But now, they’re in a chess match with a red-hot Broncos team that’s been steadily climbing the ranks. Denver can’t clinch a playoff berth this weekend, but they can make life a whole lot more complicated for New England. A win over the struggling Raiders would not only move them into the AFC’s top spot, it would give them the edge in any head-to-head seeding scenario with the Patriots.
And while nothing is guaranteed in the NFL - especially in divisional games - the Raiders haven’t exactly inspired confidence lately. The Broncos, on the other hand, are playing with swagger, and the odds are tilting their way.
If Denver does pull it off, New England would slide to the No. 2 seed. That’s still a fantastic position, especially considering where they’ve come from.
But the difference between No. 1 and No. 2 is massive. The top seed gets the bye, the rest, and the home-field advantage.
The No. 2?
They’re suiting up on Wild Card Weekend, and depending on how the bracket shakes out, they might have to pack their bags for a road trip later in the postseason.
That’s not to say the Patriots can’t handle that path - they’ve shown they can go toe-to-toe with anyone. But when you’ve had a taste of the top spot, it’s hard to let it go without a fight. And make no mistake, this team wants that No. 1 seed.
The path forward is simple, but not easy: keep winning. If the Patriots can finish strong and outpace the Broncos down the stretch, they’ll control their destiny. But if Denver keeps rolling, New England might need some help.
Either way, the Patriots have already proven they’re back in the mix - and not just as a feel-good story. They’re a real threat in the AFC, and if they can hold onto that top seed, Foxboro might just be the road to the Super Bowl once again.