With four games left on the schedule, the New England Patriots are closing in on a playoff berth - and barring a total collapse, they’re in. It’s been a strong season for a team that’s turned heads with its resilience and rapid development, especially under rookie quarterback Drake Maye.
But as we know, once the postseason begins, regular-season momentum only gets you so far. Matchups matter, and for the Patriots, there are a couple of AFC opponents they’d rather not see come January.
Houston Texans: A Defensive Gauntlet
If the playoffs started today, New England would be staring down a wild-card matchup with the Houston Texans - and that’s not exactly the ideal draw. Houston’s defense has been nothing short of elite this season, currently ranked No. 3 overall by Pro Football Focus. That’s not just a number - it’s a reflection of a unit that’s consistently made life miserable for some of the league’s best offenses.
Look no further than what they’ve done against two of the NFL’s top quarterbacks. The Texans held Josh Allen and the Bills to just 19 points, then followed that up by limiting Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to a mere 10. That’s not just good defense - that’s playoff-caliber shutdown football.
And while Drake Maye has been outstanding in his rookie campaign, the postseason is a different animal. Defensive coordinators tighten the screws, the game speeds up, and windows close faster. If Houston can stifle Allen and Mahomes, they’re more than capable of making life difficult for a first-year quarterback, no matter how poised he’s looked so far.
The Texans’ ability to keep teams out of the end zone, combined with their aggressive, disciplined front, makes them a nightmare matchup for any offense - especially one still finding its identity in the postseason spotlight.
Buffalo Bills: The Danger of Familiarity
Then there’s the Buffalo Bills - a team the Patriots have already seen (and beaten) once this season, with a rematch looming this Sunday. On paper, New England might seem like the stronger team right now. But when it comes to playoff football, experience has a way of leveling the field.
Josh Allen remains one of the most unpredictable and explosive quarterbacks in the league. He can flip a game on its head with a single throw or a bulldozing scramble.
And if the Patriots end up facing him for a third time in four months, that familiarity could become a double-edged sword. Allen’s seen this defense.
He knows the personnel. And he’s got the tools to exploit even the smallest cracks.
While New England’s current form gives them an edge, Buffalo brings something the Patriots can’t manufacture overnight: playoff experience. The Bills have made the postseason six years running.
They’ve been through the grind. They know how to navigate the pressure, the pacing, and the unpredictable nature of playoff football.
That kind of experience doesn’t guarantee success - but it does give them a comfort level New England hasn’t yet earned. And in a one-game elimination setting, that edge could be the difference between advancing and heading home early.
The Bottom Line
The Patriots have earned their position as a legitimate playoff contender. But the path forward is going to be anything but smooth. Both the Texans and Bills present unique challenges - one with a suffocating defense, the other with a battle-tested quarterback and postseason pedigree.
If New England wants to make a real run, they’ll need to do more than just show up - they’ll need to grow up fast. Because in January, talent alone doesn’t win.
Matchups do. And avoiding a few dangerous ones could be the key to keeping this promising season alive.