If the season ended today, the New England Patriots would be sitting as the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoff picture. With four weeks still to go, there's a path to leapfrog the Broncos-who are also 11-2-for that coveted first-round bye.
But assuming the standings hold, New England is on track to face the No. 7 seed in the Wild Card round. And right now, that team is the red-hot Houston Texans.
Let’s talk about Houston for a second. After an 0-3 start, they’ve flipped the switch and rattled off 10 straight wins.
That includes a statement victory over the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football, a game that vaulted them into the playoff mix. This isn’t a team sneaking in through the back door-they’ve taken down contenders like the Jaguars, Bills, Colts, and yes, the Chiefs.
That’s a playoff résumé if we’ve ever seen one.
Their five losses? All came against teams currently in playoff position.
And one of those was a tight three-point loss to Denver with Davis Mills under center instead of C.J. Stroud.
In short, the Texans aren’t just a feel-good story-they’re a legitimate threat.
If these two teams meet in the first round, it’s going to be a battle. Houston isn’t your typical No. 7 seed.
They’re surging, confident, and arguably the most dangerous team in the AFC that no one wants to face. With the Colts fading and the Jaguars inconsistent, the Texans have a real shot to take the AFC South crown.
And if they do, that changes the whole playoff seeding dynamic.
But let’s say they don’t win the division and end up facing New England in the Wild Card round. That’s not an ideal draw for the Patriots.
Houston’s Defense Is No Joke
The Texans are winning games because their defense is flat-out dominant. They’re holding opponents to just 16 points per game-the best mark in the league.
Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter are a nightmare off the edge, and the secondary is loaded with talent. Derek Stingley Jr. is playing like a shutdown corner, Kamari Lassiter has been rock solid, and Jalen Pitre continues to be a smart, instinctive safety who makes plays all over the field.
Statistically, Houston ranks third against the pass and fifth against the run. That’s elite, top-to-bottom.
And they’re not just good in general-they’re matchup-specific killers. They’ve allowed just 38.1 receiving yards per game to tight ends this season.
That’s a significant stat when you consider Hunter Henry is one of New England’s top offensive weapons and currently enjoying his most productive season yet.
So something’s going to have to give. If the Patriots want to move the ball through Henry, they’ll have to do it against a defense that’s been locking down tight ends all year.
Offense Still a Work in Progress, But Stroud Changes the Equation
Now, the Texans’ offense isn’t nearly as polished as their defense. They’re 20th in points per game and 23rd in rushing.
Woody Marks is averaging just 3.5 yards per carry, and as a team, they’re barely cracking 4.0. That’s not going to scare anyone.
But the passing game is where things start to get interesting-especially with C.J. Stroud back under center.
They’re middle-of-the-pack in passing yards (16th), but trending upward. Nico Collins has emerged as a true WR1, and rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel have stepped up in recent weeks.
Add in Dalton Schultz, who leads the team in receptions, and you’ve got a group that can stress defenses in a hurry.
And for the Patriots, that’s a concern. They’ve struggled to contain tight ends this season, and Schultz is the kind of player who can exploit that weakness.
The Offensive Line: Houston’s Achilles Heel
If there’s one area where the Texans are vulnerable, it’s the offensive line. C.J.
Stroud ranks 23rd in time to throw this season (minimum 100 snaps), and Davis Mills is dead last. That’s not just a stat-it’s a symptom of a line that’s been inconsistent all year.
Rookie Aireontae Ersery is starting at left tackle, and while he’s shown flashes, he’s also been flagged eight times and allowed seven sacks. Left guard Tytus Howard has also drawn eight penalties.
Center Jake Andrews is graded as just the 28th-best at his position, according to PFF. Ed Ingram has been a bright spot at right guard after some rocky years in Minnesota, and Trent Brown is holding down the right tackle spot.
So yeah, the Patriots’ pass rush should be licking its chops. If they can get pressure on Stroud, they can disrupt the rhythm of Houston’s passing game. But that’s a big “if” when you consider how quickly Stroud can process and how dangerous his weapons can be in space.
Final Thoughts
If New England ends up facing Houston in the first round, it won’t be your typical 2-vs-7 matchup. This Texans team is built to make noise in January. They’ve got a defense that can travel, a quarterback who can win games, and just enough playmakers to make life difficult for any opponent.
The Patriots are in a strong position, but they’ll need to be at their best if Houston is the team waiting on the other side of Wild Card weekend.