The New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills open their AFC East schedules in Week 4 with an early-afternoon meeting that comes at very different points for both teams.
New England enters at 1-2 after winning the AFC East and eventually the AFC a year ago, while Buffalo is 3-0 and looking to keep building toward a deep playoff run.
Drake Maye, last year’s runner-up MVP, has not gotten off to the kind of start the Patriots need in 2026. Through three games, he has completed 63.7% of his passes for 585 yards, one touchdown and six interceptions. Those numbers trail both his 2025 production and even his rookie output in 2024, so the pressure is on for him to straighten things out quickly.
That said, there’s a case for New England to hang around here. In the Week 4 edition of the Road to 272 Bets, the argument is to take the points with the Patriots. The read is that this is a buy-low spot on New England, which was never expected to be a dominant team this season but also hasn’t played as poorly as its record suggests.
RBSDM.com has the Patriots last in offensive luck index, and the idea is that some of the bad breaks should start evening out. The Patriots are ninth in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at +0.3, and their defense sits in the top half of the league in both opponent EPA per play and opponent success rate.
Buffalo’s defense is the part that could make covering a spread tougher than it looks. The Bills rank 25th in opponent EPA per play, 27th in opponent success rate, and 19th in opponent yards per play at 5.4. Even with an offense that has been rolling, that kind of defensive profile can make margin hard to find.
The best bet in this matchup is the Patriots with the points.
In Other News...
Patriots Rookie Shares Heartbreaking Family News After Breakthrough Moment
Eli Raridons first NFL touchdown came during a season that has already asked a lot of the rookie tight end away from the field. The Patriots pass catcher has appeared in two games this year, and while that breakthrough on the field offered a glimpse of his role in New England, his family has now shared the far more personal news behind the scenes.
Raridon and his wife, Anna, announced the loss of their newborn son, Peter James, who was diagnosed with anencephaly during a 20-week ultrasound. Anna carried Peter to term, he was born on Sept. 11, and he passed away shortly after birth. [Read more 🡒]
Drake Maye And Mike Vrabel Rumors Add New Concern For Patriots
A shaky start to the 2026 season has already put Drake Maye under an uncomfortable spotlight, with the Patriots quarterback battling multiple turnovers and uneven performance. For a team still trying to settle its long-term direction, that alone would be enough to fuel plenty of conversation around New England, especially with the offense searching for steadier footing early.
Now the discussion has widened beyond the field. A broadcast on The Greg Hill Show added another layer of concern by relaying rumors of tension between Maye and head coach Mike Vrabel, including the suggestion that Vrabel never fully backed Maye as the franchise quarterback. The reporting is coming from unnamed team sources and commentary rather than official confirmation, but even as rumor it gives the Patriots another unresolved issue to manage while the season is still taking shape. [Read more 🡒]
Cam Newton Just Turned Drake Maye Into A Patriots Debate
Drake Mayes early-season start has become a talking point far beyond Foxborough, and Cam Newton added another layer to the discussion during a recent podcast appearance. The former Patriots quarterback pointed to Mayes interceptions and the lack of touchdowns through three games, framing the performance against the kind of expectations that follow a team with a Super Bowl pedigree. Newton also acknowledged the context around the rookie passer, including injuries to Mayes receivers, but made clear his opinion was rooted in what he has seen on film and in the numbers.
For the Patriots, the debate is less about one harsh critique than about how quickly the conversation around Maye can shift from patience to scrutiny. Newton has raised the bar before when he talks about New England, and his latest comments fit that pattern, especially with a young quarterback still trying to find his footing in a less-than-ideal setup. The broader question hanging over the situation is whether the early issues are just part of the learning curve or the start of a more uncomfortable conversation about where this offense is headed. [Read more 🡒]