The Patriots head to Chicago on Thursday night looking at a short week, a road setting, and a Bears team that has already stacked up a 4-2 record. Soldier Field won’t make anything easy. But when this matchup is broken down piece by piece, New England still shows enough edges to make the trip feel winnable - even with the roster questions hanging over it.
The most encouraging signs for the Patriots come through the air. On offense, New England is dealing with some real personnel issues: the starting guards are out, Morgan Moses is questionable, and Romeo Doubs is now on injured reserve.
Even so, there’s still confidence that this passing game can function against a Bears defense that will be missing its two most disruptive players and likely one of its starting linebackers, too. The middle of the field is there to be attacked, A.J.
Brown should be better than he was last week, and if the blocking can survive the blitz and Grady Jarrett, New England should be able to work around the absences. Drake Maye obviously matters here as well.
Edge: Patriots.
The same lean shows up when the Bears have the ball. Caleb Williams has plenty to work with, and he is a pretty good quarterback, but the Patriots like their chances against Chicago’s passing attack.
Up front, New England’s pass rush should be able to create problems against an offensive line that has been uneven in protection. Milton Williams and Christian Barmore sit at the center of that pressure.
In the secondary, the big questions are how the Patriots handle tight end Colston Loveland and whether Charles Woods can keep up his strong stretch as a replacement starter. The expectation here is that Loveland is contained and Woods isn’t picked apart.
Chicago will win some individual matchups, but New England should win the overall battle. Edge: Patriots.
On the ground, the Patriots again get the nod on offense. This one has the feel of a very stoppable force against a very movable object, with both groups leaving something to be desired so far.
Still, New England has a real shot to run the ball effectively even with Walter Rouse and Matt Pryor stepping in as the new starting guard pairing. Chicago’s interior just doesn’t look strong enough beyond Grady Jarrett, especially if the Bears spend their attention on stopping Drake Maye.
Edge: Patriots.
The Bears get their best opening in the run game. Kyle Monangai is out as Chicago’s No. 2 back, but D’Andre Swift is more than enough to cause trouble on his own, and the Patriots’ run defense has given up trouble all season.
There doesn’t seem to be a quick fix for that unit, either. Missed tackles and bad angles, the kind New England showed against the Jets, will be a problem against a Bears team that leads the league in rushing attempts and keeps coming at defenses in creative ways.
Edge: Bears.
Special teams looks like the one category where neither side can claim a real advantage. Both teams have been among the better kicking units this season, and both have had kicking issues, with each kicker missing three attempts.
Chicago has been a little stronger statistically in coverage and returns, but New England’s numbers are affected by not having Brenden Schooler active for four of six games and by opponents trying to avoid Marcus Jones. The result: no clear edge.
Coaching tilts back to New England. The Patriots’ win over the Jets last week came with plenty of adversity, including their own injury issues, and the staff did a good job of adjusting on the fly.
That flexibility matters again on a short week. Even with the offensive line concerns, New England has already shown this season that it can work around weak spots.
Edge: Patriots.
So the Patriots come out ahead in four of the six categories, but that does not make this an easy call. The most convincing edge may actually be the one Chicago gets in the run game. There’s a path for Mike Vrabel’s team to leave with a win, but it will require strong play from the backups being asked to step in and a coaching staff that keeps them out of bad spots.
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