The New England Patriots stunned the football world back in Week 5 when they walked into Buffalo as heavy underdogs and walked out with a win. Now, with the AFC East title hanging in the balance, they’ll need to do it again-this time on home turf.
The stakes? A shot at their first division crown since 2019.
But standing in their way is a Bills team that hasn’t gone quietly and still has its sights set on a sixth straight division title.
At 9-4, Buffalo is very much alive in the playoff picture. A win on Sunday would not only avenge their earlier loss to New England but could also flip the division standings in their favor.
For the Patriots and head coach Mike Vrabel, this is a prove-it moment. To take down Buffalo twice in one season, they’ll need a complete effort-offense, defense, and special teams all firing.
And while it’s going to take a full-team performance, a handful of players will be especially pivotal in this rematch.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson: A Prime Matchup Opportunity
Let’s start with the ground game. Buffalo’s run defense has improved since the early part of the season, but it’s still vulnerable.
The Bills are near the bottom of the league in key efficiency metrics-allowing 5.1 yards per carry and posting a negative EPA per run. That’s the kind of statistical soft spot a back like Rhamondre Stevenson can exploit.
Stevenson’s season has been a rollercoaster. He’s battled through a toe injury and some early-season ball security issues-three fumbles in the first five weeks-but he’s also flashed the kind of versatility that makes him a critical piece in New England’s offense. He’s made plays as a runner, as a receiver, and in pass protection.
That said, Stevenson didn’t make much noise in the first meeting with Buffalo, despite finding the end zone twice. If the Patriots want to control the tempo and keep Josh Allen off the field, they’ll need Stevenson to be more than just a red-zone weapon-they’ll need him to be the engine of the offense.
WR Stefon Diggs: The Emotional X-Factor
Stefon Diggs was the emotional and statistical heartbeat of the Patriots’ upset win in Week 5. In his first game back in Buffalo since being traded, Diggs torched his former team for 10 catches and 146 yards.
It was personal. It was dominant.
And it was exactly what the Patriots needed.
Now, back at Gillette Stadium, Diggs isn’t relying on déjà vu. He knows this is a different game, a different moment.
“That was a long time ago,” Diggs said this week. “A lot of things have happened throughout this season that we kind of learned from... You learn a lot throughout the season that’s going to help you towards the end.”
The weather will be colder. The stakes are higher.
But Diggs is focused on identity-on finishing plays, playing smart, and staying aggressive. If he can channel even a fraction of what he brought to the table in Week 5, he’ll be a nightmare for Buffalo’s secondary once again.
LG Jared Wilson: A Rookie in the Spotlight
The Patriots’ offensive line took a hit in Week 12, losing both starters on the left side. While left tackle Will Campbell remains on injured reserve, rookie guard Jared Wilson is set to return-and his timing couldn’t be more critical.
Wilson, a third-round pick, will likely slide back into his left guard spot between Vederian Lowe and Garrett Bradbury. But after missing nearly three weeks, there’s a question of how quickly he can shake off the rust. Chemistry with Lowe will be key, especially against a Buffalo front that’s still dangerous despite the absence of Ed Oliver.
Even without their top interior lineman, the Bills still bring heat. DaQuan Jones, Deone Walker, Joey Bosa, and Greg Rousseau form a front seven that can collapse the pocket and disrupt rhythm. Wilson’s ability to hold his own-both physically and mentally-could be the difference between a clean pocket for Bailey Zappe and a long day at the office.
DT Khyiris Tonga: Holding the Line vs. Josh Allen
On the other side of the ball, the Patriots get a boost with the return of defensive tackle Khyiris Tonga. He’s back after suffering an injury against Cincinnati, and his presence couldn’t come at a better time.
Buffalo loves to run the football, and Josh Allen’s ability to extend plays with his legs adds another layer of complexity. Tonga knows exactly what kind of challenge that presents.
“He can do everything,” Tonga said of Allen. “Run the ball, throw the ball, throw 60 yards across his body - he can do it all. And we know that, so it’s going to be a fun challenge.”
With Milton Williams on injured reserve, Tonga is expected to start alongside Christian Barmore, who’s been limited in practice this week. The Patriots will likely rotate in Cory Durden, Eric Gregory, and Joshua Farmer to keep fresh bodies up front, but Tonga and Barmore are the top dogs. If they can clog the middle and keep Allen contained, it’ll go a long way toward neutralizing Buffalo’s offense.
LB Robert Spillane: The Communicator-in-Chief
When you’re facing Josh Allen, your linebackers have to be on point. And for New England, that starts with Robert Spillane.
The veteran linebacker wears the green dot and handles communication duties for the defense. He’s also dealing with a foot injury, so his status is something to watch. If he plays, he’ll have his hands full-literally and figuratively.
Spillane will be tasked with filling gaps against James Cook, spying Allen on scrambles, and covering tight ends like Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox. That’s a full plate. Add in Buffalo’s heavy use of motion (55.2% of snaps) and play action (16.5%), and Spillane’s ability to diagnose plays quickly becomes even more valuable.
If Spillane is limited or can’t go, it’ll force a reshuffling of the linebacker corps-and that’s not ideal against one of the most versatile offenses in the league.
K Andy Borregales: The Rookie with Ice in His Veins?
In a game that could come down to the wire, special teams can’t be overlooked. Rookie kicker Andy Borregales has been mostly reliable this season, hitting 23 of 26 field goals and 36 of 38 extra points. But his recent performances at home have been shaky.
In back-to-back cold-weather games at Gillette Stadium-against the Jets and Giants-Borregales missed a field goal in each. With temperatures expected to dip again on Sunday, the rookie will need to prove he can deliver in clutch, late-season conditions.
If this one turns into a grind-it-out, field-position battle-and it very well could-Borregales’ leg might be the difference between clinching the division and falling back into the pack.
Bottom Line: The Patriots have already proven they can beat Buffalo once. But doing it twice, with the division on the line, is a different kind of test.
It’ll take a balanced effort across all three phases-and standout performances from players like Stevenson, Diggs, Wilson, Tonga, Spillane, and Borregales-to finish the job. Sunday’s game isn’t just about revenge or redemption.
It’s about control of the AFC East-and the Patriots have a golden opportunity to seize it.