The New England Patriots are knocking on the door of their first AFC East title since 2019, and they’ll have a chance to slam it shut when they host the Buffalo Bills in Week 15. But here’s the catch - even with their sparkling 11-2 record and a firm grip on first place, they can’t lock up a playoff berth during their bye week. Not yet.
That might sound surprising in a seven-team playoff format, especially for a team that’s been this dominant. But the math - and the tiebreakers - just don’t add up in their favor this week.
Let’s break it down.
Why the Patriots Can’t Clinch This Week
With four games left, the Patriots can’t finish worse than 11-6. For them to clinch a playoff spot this week, they’d need one of two things to happen:
- Nine AFC teams finish Week 14 with at least seven losses, making it mathematically impossible for them to leapfrog New England.
- Every six-loss team would need to be locked into worse head-to-head or in-conference records than the Patriots - the first two tiebreakers in playoff seeding.
Neither of those scenarios is in play this weekend. The tiebreaker picture is still too murky, and too many teams are still mathematically alive.
The AFC Picture Right Now
Here’s how the AFC stacks up going into Week 14:
In the playoff picture:
- Patriots (11-2)
- Broncos (10-2)
- Jaguars (8-4)
- Ravens (6-6)
- Chargers (8-4)
- Colts (8-4)
- Bills (8-4)
On the outside looking in:
- Texans (7-5)
- Steelers (6-6)
- Chiefs (6-6)
- Dolphins (7-7)
- Bengals (4-8)
- Jets (3-9)
- Browns (3-9)
- Raiders (2-10)
- Titans (1-11)
Six teams already have at least seven losses - and that’s good news for New England. It means those teams can’t catch them if the Patriots were to lose out and finish 11-6.
But three teams - the Texans, Steelers, and Chiefs - are still in play. Each could finish with six losses or fewer, which means the tiebreakers could come into play.
The Tiebreaker Trouble
Let’s talk about those tiebreakers. Here are the current AFC records for the teams still in the mix:
- Patriots: 6-2
- Texans: 6-2
- Steelers: 5-3
- Chiefs: 3-4
Each team plays 12 conference games. So even if New England loses out, they could finish 6-6 in the AFC. That opens the door for teams like Houston and Kansas City to match or beat that in-conference mark.
And here’s where it gets tricky: the Patriots already lose the head-to-head tiebreaker to the Steelers. So even if Pittsburgh doesn’t win out, that loss could come back to haunt New England if things get tight at the bottom of the playoff picture.
Now, if both the Steelers and Chiefs lose this weekend, that would simplify things a bit. But even then, the Texans would remain a factor. And if Kansas City beats Houston, both teams would sit at six losses - keeping the Patriots from clinching anything just yet.
What Happens in Week 15 Matters More
All of this becomes a lot simpler if the Patriots take care of business in Week 15 against the Bills. A win there would clinch the AFC East, bring out the division title hats and T-shirts, and shift the focus to locking down that coveted first-round bye.
But what if Buffalo pulls off the upset?
Well, then things get a little more complicated - and a lot more interesting.
If Buffalo loses to Cincinnati in Week 14, then beats New England in Week 15, the Patriots can still clinch the division in Week 16 with a win over the Ravens and a Bills loss to the Browns.
But if the Bills beat both the Bengals and the Patriots, then the AFC East crown stays in play at least through Week 17.
As for a playoff berth even with a loss to Buffalo? The math stays the same. The Patriots would still need either nine AFC teams to have seven or more losses after Week 15, or to have all six-loss teams locked into worse tiebreaker positions - and that’s not happening this week.
Bottom Line
The Patriots are in a strong position - no question. But they’re not in yet.
The AFC is still crowded, and the tiebreakers are still very much alive. The bye week won’t hand them a playoff ticket, but a win over Buffalo in Week 15 just might.
Until then, New England fans will have to wait - and maybe scoreboard-watch a little - as the rest of the AFC continues to sort itself out.