The NFL MVP race is heating up, and while the official hardware won’t be handed out until February 5, the conversation is already buzzing - and not just about who will win, but who should.
On the surface, Matthew Stafford appears to be the frontrunner. The Rams quarterback was named First-Team All-Pro by the Associated Press, a strong indicator of how MVP voters might lean.
That kind of recognition usually puts a player in the driver’s seat for the league’s most prestigious individual honor. But dig a little deeper, and there's a compelling case to be made for another name: New England Patriots rookie quarterback Drake Maye.
In a ranking of the top 100 most valuable players this season, ESPN’s Seth Walder placed Maye at the very top - ahead of Stafford, ahead of Dak Prescott, and ahead of every other name in the league. Walder’s methodology doesn’t just follow the traditional script.
His rankings factor in advanced metrics, performance relative to positional averages, and insights from NFL front office personnel. It’s a more nuanced look at value, and by that lens, Maye didn’t just belong in the conversation - he led it.
So what pushed Maye to the top? It starts with efficiency, and ends with a level of accuracy we haven’t seen in years.
Maye led all quarterbacks in QBR with a mark of 77.2 - a comfortable gap over the next closest passer, Jordan Love, who finished at 72.9. And since QBR adjusts for opponent strength, that number isn’t inflated by the Patriots’ relatively soft schedule. It’s a clean, comparative metric - and Maye dominated it.
But it wasn’t just about QBR. Maye also led the league in yards per dropback (7.7), adjusted completion percentage (78.8%), and completion percentage over expectation (CPOE), where he posted a staggering +9%.
That’s not just good - it’s historic. Since the NFL began tracking Next Gen Stats in 2016, no quarterback has posted a better CPOE in a single season.
Maye didn’t just dink and dunk his way to those numbers, either. He was pushing the ball downfield.
His 8.7 air yards per attempt ranked third in the league, and nearly half of his throws (47%) were to or beyond the sticks - fourth highest among qualifying quarterbacks. That aggressive style, paired with pinpoint accuracy, made for a lethal combination.
He recorded 54 plays that generated at least two expected points added (EPA), tied for the second most in the NFL.
Now, compare that to Stafford. His season was undeniably strong - you don’t get First-Team All-Pro honors by accident.
But when you stack up the numbers, Stafford’s accuracy didn’t quite match Maye’s or Prescott’s. And context matters here, too.
Stafford had the benefit of throwing to two All-Pro wideouts in Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, with Pro Bowl running back Kyren Williams in the backfield. That’s a loaded offense.
Maye? He made it work without that kind of supporting cast.
The Patriots have talent, sure, but they don’t have a Nacua-Adams-Williams trio. Maye’s ability to elevate the offense - and do so with such efficiency - is what makes his season stand out even more.
Still, all signs point to Stafford taking home the official MVP award. And hey, that’s not a knock - Stafford’s been excellent, and he’s led the Rams to the brink of a Super Bowl.
But if we’re talking about value, not just results, Maye’s case is as strong as anyone’s. He might not walk away with the trophy, but he’s already earned the respect of analysts, front offices, and fans who understand just how rare his rookie season has been.
And who knows - with both the Patriots and Rams still alive in the playoff hunt, there’s a chance we could see Maye and Stafford settle things on the biggest stage of all. MVP or not, that’s the showdown everyone should be rooting for.