AFC Championship Breakdown: Patriots Survive Denver with Defense, But Offense Still a Question Mark
Mike Vrabel has a pretty straightforward way of evaluating his team’s performance: the good, the bad, and, as he famously puts it, the stuff that gets you beat. And after the Patriots clawed their way to a gritty 10-7 win over the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship Game, it’s hard to argue with that framework.
Because this one? It had a little bit of everything.
Let’s break it down just like Vrabel would.
The Good: Defense Sets the Tone, and the Tempo
The Patriots didn’t just win this game-they dictated it. And they did it the way championship teams often do in January: with defense, discipline, and a few well-timed momentum shifts.
First and foremost, the defense brought the heat. Coming into the game, one of the biggest questions was how Jarrett Stidham would handle playoff pressure. The Broncos’ backup quarterback hadn’t thrown a single regular season pass this year, and now he was being asked to lead a team into Foxborough with a Super Bowl berth on the line.
The Patriots made sure he felt every bit of that pressure.
Stidham was sacked three times and pressured on 35% of his dropbacks. That’s not just disruptive-that’s game-changing.
And the impact was immediate. By the second quarter, you could see it: his internal clock sped up, his reads got tighter, and then came the play that flipped the script.
Trying to avoid a sack, Stidham attempted to throw the ball away-but instead tossed it backward. Fumble.
Patriots ball. Rookie Elijah Ponder jumped on it at the Denver 12, and two plays later, New England punched it in for their only touchdown of the day.
From there, the defense never let up. Milton Williams and Christian Barmore were a force inside, collapsing the pocket and making life miserable for Denver’s offensive line-one of the league’s best at protecting the quarterback all season long.
The numbers tell the story. When Stidham was kept clean, he went 16-of-21 for 129 yards and a touchdown.
Under pressure? Just 1-of-10 for 4 yards, an interception by Christian Gonzalez, and that costly fumble.
That’s the kind of defensive effort that wins playoff games-and it just did.
The Bad: Coverage Lapses Nearly Prove Costly
For most of the afternoon, the Patriots’ defense looked like a championship-caliber unit. But even the best defenses can’t afford mental lapses in the postseason, and New England had two that nearly flipped the game.
The first came on a 52-yard strike to Marvin Mims Jr. The Patriots had rotated into a quarters coverage look, but something got lost in translation. Gonzalez appeared to expect deep help, while safety Jaylinn Hawkins was caught too shallow-either locked in on the wrong receiver or reading Stidham’s eyes instead of sticking to his assignment.
Two plays later, it was déjà vu. This time, Courtland Sutton slipped behind the secondary for a wide-open touchdown in the end zone. Again, Hawkins looked to be out of position, though without knowing the exact coverage call, it’s tough to assign full blame.
Still, two explosive plays off coverage breakdowns in a game this tight? That’s the kind of stuff that can sink a season.
Fortunately for New England, those were the only real cracks in an otherwise dominant defensive showing. But with the Super Bowl looming, there’s no margin for error.
Communication on the back end has to be sharp.
The Stuff That Gets You Beat: Offensive Inconsistency
Let’s be clear: this Patriots offense has shown flashes. But against Denver, it was more of a flicker than a flame.
Facing one of the NFL’s most ferocious pass rushes, New England struggled to find any rhythm early. Their first four drives?
Two first downs, 36 total yards, and four punts. It wasn’t until the defense gifted them prime field position-after Stidham’s fumble set them up at the Broncos’ 12-that they finally found the end zone.
Even then, the offensive spark didn’t last long. The Patriots managed just 24 yards and one first down on their next two possessions before missing a field goal to close out the half.
To their credit, they came out of halftime with a bit more juice. Two long, clock-chewing drives in the third quarter showed signs of life, but they stalled out and produced just three points.
That was it. Ten points total.
And while the defense did more than enough to make it stand up, the offensive numbers paint a concerning picture heading into the Super Bowl.
New England averaged just 3.2 yards per play, posted a -0.14 EPA per play, and converted only 31% of their third downs. That’s not going to cut it on the biggest stage, especially against a team that can put up points in bunches.
Bottom Line
The Patriots are headed to the Super Bowl, and they’ve earned it with a defense that’s playing lights-out football. They pressured the quarterback, forced turnovers, and held a playoff opponent to under 200 yards of total offense. That’s championship DNA.
But the offensive issues are real, and they’re not going away on their own. If New England wants to bring home another Lombardi Trophy, they’ll need more than just grit and defense-they’ll need their offense to rise to the occasion.
For now, though, they’ve got one more game to play. And thanks to a defense that showed up when it mattered most, they’ll be playing it on the biggest stage of all.