The Patriots’ trip to face the Jets in Week 6 comes with plenty of AFC East implications, even if the old buzz around this rivalry has faded some from where it sat more than a decade ago. The stakes are still real. A New England loss on Sunday could create even more separation from the division lead, while a Jets loss would raise more questions about whether they belong in the East race at all.
When the matchup gets broken down piece by piece, the advantage leans heavily toward New England.
The clearest edge may come when the Patriots have the ball. New York is bringing an aggressive defense with a heavy blitz rate, but that aggression hasn’t translated into consistently strong pressure or overall defensive success on a per-dropback basis.
That matters against a Patriots passing attack that looked sharp last week against Las Vegas and now gets its top wide receiver, A.J. Brown, back.
The Jets can win individual battles, and rookie edge David Bailey has been getting to the quarterback at a sack-per-game clip so far, but the bigger picture - especially over the last two weeks - points toward New England.
The run game is a different story. Even with TreVeyon Henderson expected to play and left tackle Will Campbell also set to be available, the Patriots still don’t hold the upper hand on the ground.
The Jets have been sturdier against the run, ranking eighth in EPA per run, while New England’s offense sits 23rd. Zooming in on the last two weeks doesn’t change much: the Patriots are 19th, and the Jets are ninth.
New England could find some room if New York gets overly committed to stopping the pass or chasing scramble looks, but the Patriots have yet to prove they can reliably cash in on those openings.
The Jets’ offense on the ground doesn’t make this a runaway either, though the matchup still tilts New York’s way on paper. By EPA per play, the Patriots’ defense ranks 30th and the Jets’ offense 20th.
But the absence of Breece Hall and left guard Dylan Parham changes the feel of the matchup considerably. If New England can force this game into a dropback script and make Smith move the ball through the air, that swings things back toward the Patriots.
Special teams looks like a wash in most areas. Return game, coverage, kicking, punting - the two teams are pretty close across the board.
The one spot that stands out is New York’s punt coverage, which has allowed the fourth-highest average per return in the league through five games. That could matter against Marcus Jones, who once again gives the Patriots a real weapon in the return game.
On the sideline, New England also appears to have the cleaner edge. Mike Vrabel’s staff has settled in after some early-season stumbles, and coordinators Josh McDaniels and Zak Kuhr have done well putting their units in position to succeed.
The recent growth from both the team and a few individual players backs that up. The Jets’ coaching staff, meanwhile, went through major offseason changes and is still working to find its rhythm, especially on offense.
That all lines up with the bigger picture. New England is a touchdown favorite, and the reason is straightforward: across the roster and on the coaching front, the Patriots have simply looked like the better team this season, especially over the last two weeks. Division games can get weird, but anything other than a Patriots win on Sunday would come as a surprise - and, for New England, a letdown.
In Other News...
Patriots Could Get A.J. Brown Back For Jets At Perfect Time
A.J. Browns return could give the Patriots a timely boost heading into their meeting with the Jets, with the veteran receiver expected to be activated from injured reserve after working back into practice. Brown has been out since Week 1 because of a high ankle sprain, and his progress this week has put him on track to rejoin the lineup after a stretch in which New England has had to adjust without one of its more proven playmakers.
Mike Vrabel has not locked anything in just yet, however, making clear Browns availability still hinges on how he comes through Fridays practice. Brown has sounded optimistic about getting back on the field, and for a Patriots team looking for any edge in a division matchup, his presence would come at a welcome moment if he checks the final box. [Read more 🡒]
Patriots Suddenly Have A Week 6 Question Jets Fans Will Notice
The Patriots are heading into Week 6 with a healthier-looking roster than theyve had in recent weeks, and that matters with the Jets coming to town. A.J. Brown is expected to be activated off injured reserve, Christian Gonzalez has said hes ready after missing time with an injury, and New England is also expecting help from a couple of other important pieces as it tries to steady itself in the division.
Running back TreVeyon Henderson and offensive tackle Will Campbell both appear on track to suit up, according to NFL Insider Ian Rapoport, which would give the Patriots a boost in both the backfield and up front. Hendersons return is especially notable after his ankle situation left some doubt around his availability, and the way New England manages those returns could shape how it handles a Jets defense eager to test whatever rust remains. [Read more 🡒]
Patriots Fans Already Trust One Fill-In Option If Left Tackle Changes
Will Campbells knee injury briefly put the Patriots in a spot theyd rather avoid, but rookie Caleb Lomu gave them at least one encouraging answer. After Campbell exited early and was limited in practice, Lomu stepped in at left tackle and held up well in pass protection, giving New England a usable option if the line has to absorb another adjustment heading into this week.
The larger takeaway is that Patriots fans do not seem to view the position as a panic point, even with the uncertainty around Campbells availability. A recent fan survey found a majority believe Lomu can handle fill-in duty at left tackle, and a sizable chunk are especially confident in him, which says plenty about how quickly he has earned trust in a spot that usually makes supporters nervous. [Read more 🡒]