Predictions are already piling up for the 2026 NFL season, and the New England Patriots keep landing in the middle of the conversation.
The buzz starts with Drake Maye, who now has a stronger receiving corps around him with No. 1 target A.J. Brown and new No. 2 wideout Romeo Doubs.
That’s enough to make some people think New England could be ready to make noise. But there’s a catch: the schedule looks a lot tougher, and that’s dragging expectations down in a hurry.
SB Nation’s Jarrett Bailey laid out 61 predictions for the 2026 season, and he was not kind to the Patriots right out of the gate. In his No. 11 prediction, he has New England stumbling through its first four games against four 2025 playoff teams, with three of those matchups coming on the road. His forecast: 1-3.
Still, Bailey doesn’t write the Patriots off. In prediction No. 42, he has them reaching the playoffs anyway, even if they fall behind Buffalo in the AFC East race.
That opening stretch is brutal on paper, and it starts with a real measuring-stick game. New England will open at Seattle on September 9 in a Super Bowl rematch, a game that should tell a lot about how far Mike Vrabel has come in reshaping the roster. The Patriots’ 2025 run was a wild one: they won 14 regular-season games, jumped 10 wins from 2024, and rode the Drake Maye surge all the way to the Super Bowl before the Seahawks shut the door.
Seattle exposed plenty in that title game, especially with a 6-1 sack edge and three New England turnovers helping decide the outcome. Vrabel has had the offseason to address the issues that showed up there, but questions still hang over several key spots.
The edge remains unsettled because of Harold Landry III’s knee situation and rookie Gabe Jacas, who is just getting into the mix and may have health concerns of his own. Tight end is thin.
The offensive line doesn’t have much depth. The wide receiver room is the one area that looks clearly improved, and that may be what keeps Maye and the offense afloat.
Bailey’s full outlook has New England taking a step back, but not falling apart. He sees the Patriots finishing 10-7, landing the No. 6 seed, and grabbing the second wild card spot in the AFC.
He put it plainly: "New England takes a bit of a step back in 2026, but that’s expected when you win 14 games the year before. They get to 10-7 and earn the second wild card spot in the AFC."
That’s the shape of the Patriots’ 2026 picture right now: a rough early test, a tougher schedule, and enough talent - especially with Maye’s upgraded weapons - to keep them in the playoff mix. Whether they come out of those first four games at 1-3 or 2-2, the road ahead looks demanding, and there’s still plenty of work left to do.
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