A handful of NFL teams rode surprising 2025 seasons into a lot of offseason optimism, but the road gets steeper fast in 2026. Denver, New England, Jacksonville, Chicago, Pittsburgh and Carolina all have reasons to believe last year’s record may not be repeatable, and in several cases the warning signs are obvious.
The common thread is simple: tougher schedules, shaky injury situations and a few numbers that don’t usually hold up from one season to the next. Some of these teams got the bounce of close-game luck. Others leaned on a defense or a quarterback performance that may be harder to bank on again.
Denver is the first club on that list, even after going 14-3 in 2025 and reaching the AFC Championship Game. Bo Nix’s ankle injury in the divisional round cost him the rest of the postseason, and he had surgery plus a second procedure to remove bone spurs, but he is back with no lingering concerns.
The bigger problem is the slate ahead. Denver benefited from a favorable schedule last year, and the 2026 version is much tougher, with 10 games against the AFC West and NFC West.
Add in the reality that the Broncos won a bunch of close games a year ago, and a step back looks far more likely than another 14-win run.
New England’s case is similar, just with even more schedule pressure. The Patriots went 14-3 and made it all the way to Super Bowl LX before falling to Seattle, 29-13, and that kind of season came with a historically friendly schedule attached to it.
In 2026, that flips. Several depth pieces left in free agency, and the new slate is loaded with playoff teams from last season instead of the softer matchups that helped pad the win total.
Drake Maye was excellent in his first year as a starter, and the additions of AJ Brown and Romeo Doubs give the passing game help, but repeating 14 wins while running through a much nastier 17-game stretch is a different animal.
Jacksonville also has a tougher path ahead after a big leap in 2025. The Jaguars finished 13-4 and won the AFC South thanks to Trevor Lawrence’s strong close to the season, but they were quiet in free agency, not signing a single notable name this offseason.
That stands out in a division and conference that kept getting better around them. The schedule is no picnic either: Jacksonville closes with 10 games in the final stretch, seven of them on the road and two on short weeks, after back-to-back home games in London.
Lawrence enters his second year in Liam Coen’s offense healthy, but that kind of hot finish is rarely something a team just recreates on command.
Chicago fits the same profile, only with a different set of warning lights. The Bears won the NFC North at 11-6, but Ben Johnson has already labeled his own team the league’s top regression candidate.
That’s not hard to understand. Chicago led the league in turnover margin and went 8-5 in one-score games, two areas that tend to swing back toward the middle.
The defense also had real issues, ranking 27th in points allowed per drive on non-turnover possessions and 29th in pressure rate. On top of that, the Bears go from a last-place schedule to a first-place one, with the NFC South and AFC East on deck, including the Buccaneers, Patriots and Bills.
Pittsburgh’s 10-7 season and AFC North title came with a quick exit, a 30-6 wild-card loss to Houston, and the outlook now looks even rougher. Aaron Rodgers is 42, says this is his final season, and graded below league average in EPA per play, completion percentage over expectation and bad-throw rate.
The defense also slipped outside the top 10 in DVOA after spending years near the top. ESPN’s Future Power Rankings panel ranked Pittsburgh’s quarterback situation worst in the league heading into 2026, and new head coach Mike McCarthy inherits a roster that still wants to lean on a defense that no longer looks as dominant.
Carolina might be the clearest example of a team that got more out of last season than the underlying profile suggested. The Panthers won the NFC South at 8-9, needed a Week 18 tiebreaker just to get there, and finished 6-2 in one-score games.
They also beat only two teams with winning records all season. That kind of luck usually doesn’t stick around.
The injury list hasn’t helped, either, with left tackle Ikem Ekwonu, right tackle Taylor Moton, defensive tackle Tershawn Wharton, edge rusher Nic Scourton, receiver Chris Brazzell II and running back Chuba Hubbard all banged up this offseason. Bryce Young still has to prove he can carry an NFL offense, and while the division remains wide open, Carolina looks like a team built to come back to earth.
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