The New England Patriots are coming out of their bye week sitting at 11-2, riding a 10-game win streak, undefeated on the road, and one win away from locking up the AFC East. And yet, somehow, they’re still being treated like a mystery team - a puzzle the national media and analytics models can’t quite figure out.
Let’s start with the numbers. ESPN’s Football Power Index has the Patriots ranked 15th in the league.
Not fifth. Fifteenth.
That puts them behind teams like the Jaguars, Chargers, and Bengals - all of whom trail New England in the standings and, frankly, in consistency. The biggest knock?
Strength of schedule. The Patriots rank 32nd in that department, which is dragging down their overall rating.
But here’s the thing: you can only play who’s in front of you, and New England has done nothing but win - including a road victory over Buffalo back in Week 5.
And that’s where things get especially puzzling. Despite beating the Bills, holding a better overall record, and sharing eight common opponents, the Patriots are still ranked eight spots behind Buffalo in ESPN’s model.
Even the betting markets are leaning toward the Bills, with BetMGM listing them as the AFC’s top Super Bowl favorite at +400. The Patriots and Broncos are both sitting at +375 - slightly behind.
But if New England handles business this Sunday against Josh Allen and company, expect those odds to shift in a hurry. A win at home would not only clinch the division, but also send a clear message to the rest of the league: the Patriots are more than just a hot streak - they’re a problem.
And that’s the real story here. Whether the models believe it or not, the Patriots are back.
Head coach Mike Vrabel has this team playing with purpose, physicality, and belief - and that’s not just coach-speak. This team has an identity again, and it’s showing up every week.
NFL analyst Bucky Brooks recently weighed in on the Patriots’ resurgence, and his take is worth highlighting. While he backed the Chicago Bears - led by first-year head coach Ben Johnson - as a potential playoff sleeper this season, Brooks sees the long-term upside tilted toward Foxborough.
“With Vrabel overseeing the operation as an experienced head coach who won three Super Bowls as a player, the future is quite bright again in Foxborough, with the franchise quarterback and nucleus in place,” Brooks wrote. “This only feels like the beginning. That's right, people: New England is back.”
Hard to argue with that. Vrabel has already built a locker room that’s bought in from top to bottom.
The Patriots are playing disciplined, complementary football, and they’re doing it with a young quarterback in Drake Maye who’s passed every test thrown his way. He’s not just managing games - he’s making plays, showing poise, and giving this team a real shot every Sunday.
And while Johnson has done an impressive job turning around the Bears, there’s something to be said for how quickly Vrabel has stabilized a franchise that was coming off back-to-back four-win seasons. The Patriots aren’t just winning - they’re building something sustainable.
So why is the football world still hesitant to crown them as legitimate contenders? Maybe it’s the schedule.
Maybe it’s skepticism over a rookie quarterback. Or maybe it’s just unfamiliar territory - seeing the Patriots rise again, but this time without Bill Belichick on the sideline.
Whatever the reason, it doesn’t really matter. Because if there’s one thing Vrabel’s Patriots have made clear, it’s that they’re not here for the noise.
They’re here to win. And with the Bills coming into Foxborough this Sunday, they’ve got another chance to make their case - not with words, but with results.
Kickoff is at 1 p.m. You might want to tune in.