Josh Allen Crashes the MVP Conversation After Statement Win in Week 15
Just when it looked like the MVP race was down to two, Josh Allen kicked the door open and reminded everyone why he’s still a force to be reckoned with. Coming off a pivotal win over the New England Patriots in Week 15, Allen has surged into the thick of the MVP conversation-vaulting from +1500 to +550 in the odds. That’s a massive leap, and with the Buffalo Bills creeping closer to the AFC East crown, Allen’s late-season push suddenly feels very real.
Right now, Allen sits third in the MVP odds behind rookie sensation Drake Maye (+425) and veteran Matthew Stafford, who remains the frontrunner at -300. No other player is even remotely close-Bo Nix, the next-closest contender, is sitting way back at +7500. That tells you just how narrow this race has become, and how much weight Allen’s head-to-head win over Maye might carry if the Bills can finish strong.
Let’s break it down.
Matthew Stafford: Still the Favorite, But the Pressure Is Mounting
Stafford and the Rams are holding steady at the top of the NFC, and his MVP case is built on consistency and firepower. After Sunday’s comeback win over his former team, the Detroit Lions, Stafford now leads the league with 37 touchdown passes. He threw for 368 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception in that one-another reminder that even at this stage in his career, he can still sling it with the best of them.
But the road ahead isn’t smooth. The Rams face the Seahawks on Thursday night, and with Davante Adams likely sidelined due to a hamstring issue, the offense could be short-handed.
A loss would knock the Rams out of the NFC’s top seed and potentially derail Stafford’s MVP campaign. At -300, there’s risk baked into those odds.
But if he pulls out another win under the lights, he might just slam the door shut on the competition.
Josh Allen: The Dual-Threat Dynamo Making His Move
Allen was electric in Buffalo’s win over New England. He threw for just 193 yards, but made every one of them count with three touchdown passes.
Add in 48 rushing yards on 11 carries, and you’ve got one of the most dangerous dual-threat performances of the weekend. It wasn’t just the stats-it was the moment.
Beating Maye on the road, in a must-win game, with the division on the line? That’s the kind of signature win MVP voters remember.
The Bills still have work to do-they’ll likely need to win out to overtake the Patriots in the AFC East-but the path is there. And if Allen keeps stacking wins and delivering highlight-reel plays, his odds are only going to tighten. His case hinges on Buffalo taking the division, but the momentum is shifting, and Allen’s right in the eye of that storm.
Drake Maye: A Costly Slip at the Worst Time
Maye’s been one of the breakout stars of the season, but Sunday’s loss to Allen and the Bills was a gut punch. Not only did the Patriots lose at home, but Maye struggled.
He completed just 14 of 23 passes for 155 yards and threw a pick. While he did salvage the day with two rushing touchdowns, the overall performance left a lot to be desired-especially in a game with major playoff and MVP implications.
The Patriots are now a game behind for the AFC’s top seed and don’t hold the tiebreaker, which complicates Maye’s path to the award. After sitting at +200 last week, he’s dropped to +425. Still in the mix, but trending in the wrong direction at exactly the wrong time.
Bo Nix: Winning Big, But Still on the Outside Looking In
Bo Nix hasn’t dazzled on the stat sheet this season, but he’s doing something that’s hard to ignore-he’s winning. The Broncos have rattled off 11 straight victories, including a comeback win over Green Bay on Sunday where Nix threw for 302 yards and four touchdowns. Denver now owns the best record in the NFL at 12-2.
Nix’s numbers-23 touchdown passes, 63.5% completion rate-don’t stack up with Stafford, Allen, or Maye. But leading a team to the top of the league has to count for something. Right now, he’s still a long shot at +7500, but if Denver keeps winning and chaos unfolds at the top, Nix could sneak into the conversation.
Jordan Love: A Fall From Contender to Long Shot
Just a week ago, Jordan Love was sitting at +1000 in the MVP odds after a big win over the Bears. Fast forward to now, and he’s dropped all the way to +7500 after a rough outing against Denver. Love threw for 276 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions in the loss, and the Packers now sit as the No. 7 seed in the NFC heading into another critical matchup with Chicago.
The MVP window hasn’t just closed-it’s practically bolted shut. Love’s still growing, but the consistency isn’t there yet to hang with the top tier of contenders.
The MVP Race Heading Into Week 16
With three weeks to go, the MVP race is far from settled. Stafford’s still the favorite, but Allen’s charging hard, and Maye’s stumble has opened the door. Nix is the dark horse with the league’s best record, and Love’s campaign appears to be fading fast.
What’s clear is this: the next few weeks will be decisive. Key matchups, playoff positioning, and big-time performances are going to shape this award down the stretch. And if Week 15 was any indication, Josh Allen isn’t done making noise.