Josh Allen Is Heating Up - And So Is the MVP Race
Don’t look now, but Josh Allen is doing what Josh Allen does best in December: turning up the heat when it matters most.
Fresh off another strong outing against the Patriots, the reigning NFL MVP is officially back in the thick of the race for the league’s top individual honor. And while the numbers on the field tell one story, the betting markets are starting to tell another - Allen is rising.
Right now, he’s sitting at +525 to win MVP, which places him third behind Matthew Stafford (-300) and rookie sensation Drake Maye (+425). With three weeks left in the regular season, there’s still plenty of football to be played - and plenty of room for movement in the MVP conversation.
The MVP Race: More Than Just Stats
Unlike most awards in sports, the NFL MVP isn’t purely about stats or wins. It’s decided by 50 voters selected by the Associated Press, and ballots are cast after the regular season ends. That means perception, momentum, and narrative all matter - and Allen is building a compelling one.
Last year, Allen took home the MVP without the Bills locking up the top seed in the AFC. It came down to him and Lamar Jackson, and neither quarterback had the No. 1 spot. That precedent could work in Allen’s favor again this year - especially if the Bills manage to wrestle the AFC East title away from the Patriots down the stretch.
Stafford Leads, But for How Long?
Stafford currently leads the MVP odds, and it’s not hard to see why. The Rams are 11-3, and he’s been the steady hand guiding a team that’s found its groove late in the season. But here’s the catch - the Seahawks are also 11-3, and the two teams are set to clash on Thursday night in a game that could swing not just the NFC West, but the entire MVP race.
If the Rams fall behind Seattle in the division, Stafford’s MVP case could take a hit. Voters often lean toward quarterbacks leading top-seeded teams, and a slip in the standings could open the door for someone like Allen to make a late charge.
Drake Maye: The Wild Card
Then there’s Drake Maye, the Patriots’ rookie quarterback who’s turned heads all season. At +425, he’s firmly in the mix and has a chance to make history. But with a few tough games left on the schedule and Allen breathing down his neck, Maye will need to keep delivering under pressure to stay in the race.
Don’t Sleep on Bo Nix
While he’s a long shot at +7500, Broncos quarterback Bo Nix is playing some of his best football right now. If Denver keeps winning and sneaks into a top playoff spot, he could make things interesting. It’s unlikely, but not impossible - and in a year where the MVP field feels unusually fluid, nothing’s off the table.
Allen’s Case: Momentum, Impact, and Star Power
Allen’s push isn’t just about numbers - it’s about timing and impact. He’s elevating his team at the most critical point of the season, and voters remember those moments. If the Bills can keep winning and Allen continues to put up big performances, it’s not hard to envision a scenario where he leapfrogs Maye, and maybe even Stafford, to claim back-to-back MVPs.
The MVP race is far from over. And while Stafford may be in the driver’s seat for now, Allen is gaining ground fast - and if we’ve learned anything over the past few seasons, it’s that you can never count him out when the stakes are highest.
Three weeks to go. One MVP up for grabs. And Josh Allen is coming.