NFL Week 13: Underdogs Shake Up the Playoff Picture as Contenders Jockey for Position
Week 13 in the NFL brought the kind of chaos that separates contenders from pretenders. With playoff positioning tightening and a handful of surprising results across the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, the postseason picture is starting to take shape-and shift dramatically.
Let’s break down the biggest developments from a wild slate of games and what they mean for the playoff races in both conferences.
AFC South Gets Flipped on Its Head
Just a month ago, the idea of Jacksonville leading the AFC South felt far-fetched. But after dismantling the Titans on Sunday, the Jaguars now sit atop the division with their third straight win. The defense showed up, the offense clicked, and with two critical matchups against the Colts still on the horizon, Jacksonville suddenly controls its own destiny.
Meanwhile, Indianapolis continues to slide. A 20-16 loss to the Texans marks their third defeat in four weeks, and the offense just couldn’t get going-managing only 281 total yards and converting just three of ten third downs. The Colts are still in the playoff hunt, but they're no longer leading the charge.
Houston, on the other hand, is surging. Sunday’s win over Indy not only boosts their playoff stock but also sends a message: this young team is ahead of schedule, and they’re not backing down.
Thanksgiving Weekend Turns the NFC Upside Down
The holiday slate started with a statement. Green Bay went into Detroit and handed the Lions a 31-24 loss, completing a season sweep and improving to 8-3-1. That puts the Packers just a fraction behind the Bears in the NFC North, setting up a massive showdown next week.
Dallas kept the momentum going in the middle game, stunning the Chiefs 31-28 in a thriller that could have major implications for seeding. The Cowboys are heating up at the right time, and their offense is finding a rhythm that makes them a legitimate threat.
But the biggest shock came in the nightcap. The Bengals walked into Baltimore and dominated the Ravens 32-14, taking control of the AFC North in the process.
Baltimore’s offense looked out of sync, and turnovers proved costly. They’ll need to regroup fast with Pittsburgh up next.
Bears’ Turnaround is the Story of the Season
One year ago, the Bears fired Matt Eberflus on Black Friday. Fast forward to this season, and rookie head coach Ben Johnson has Chicago sitting at 9-3 and holding the NFC’s No. 2 seed.
They earned that spot with a convincing 24-15 win over the Eagles, powered by a physical ground game and a defense that forced key stops when it mattered most. Chicago isn’t just surviving a tough schedule-they’re thriving in it. Next week’s trip to Lambeau Field could decide the North.
Panthers Pull Off Stunner, Rams Slip
The Rams looked like they were rounding into form after a dominant win over Tampa Bay. But then came Sunday’s loss in Charlotte, where Carolina forced three turnovers and Bryce Young tossed three touchdown passes in a breakout performance.
Matthew Stafford’s three giveaways-including a pick-six-were too much to overcome. The loss knocks the Rams off the NFC’s top line and gives Chicago a clear path to home-field advantage if they can keep winning.
AFC Playoff Picture: Patriots, Broncos, Jaguars Lead the Way
- Patriots (10-2): With a Monday night matchup against the two-win Giants looming, New England is eyeing its 11th win. They’ve got just one opponent left above .500, and their playoff odds sit at a commanding 99%.
- Broncos (9-2): Coming off their bye, Denver faces Washington on Sunday night. With three games left against winning teams, they’re in a strong position to lock down a top seed.
- Jaguars (8-4): Winners of three straight, Jacksonville now leads the AFC South. With two games left against the Colts, they control the division race.
- Ravens (6-5): After their loss to Cincinnati, Baltimore dropped out of the AFC North lead. They’ll try to bounce back against the Steelers this week.
- Colts (8-4): The offense sputtered again in a loss to Houston. With five games left-four against winning teams-the road to the postseason won’t be easy.
- Chargers (7-4): Fresh off their bye, the Chargers now host the Raiders-a favorable matchup that could help solidify their playoff standing.
- Bills (7-4): After falling to Houston last Thursday, Buffalo had a mini-bye to regroup before heading to Pittsburgh in Week 13.
NFC Playoff Picture: Bears, Rams, and Packers in the Hunt
- Bears (9-3): After outmuscling the Eagles, Chicago heads to Green Bay with the division lead on the line. Their playoff odds are now at 73%, and climbing.
- Rams (9-3): The loss to Carolina was a setback, but the Rams still have a manageable schedule and a 98% chance to make the postseason.
- Eagles (8-4): A two-game skid has exposed some issues, but with two games left against Washington and one against the Raiders, the path forward is favorable.
- Buccaneers (7-5): Tampa Bay held off the Cardinals to stay a half-game ahead of the Panthers in the NFC South. They’ll meet again in Weeks 16 and 18, likely to decide the division.
- Seahawks (8-3): Seattle took care of business against Tennessee and now face the Vikings, who are starting rookie Max Brosmer at quarterback.
- Packers (8-3-1): Their Thanksgiving win over Detroit keeps them right in the thick of the NFC North race. Next week’s showdown with Chicago is shaping up to be one of the biggest games of the season.
- 49ers (9-4): San Francisco avoided a letdown in Cleveland, beating the Browns 26-8 and holding Shedeur Sanders to just 148 yards in his second career start. They remain one of the most balanced teams in the league.
Looking Ahead
Week 13 gave us a clearer playoff picture-but also reminded us how quickly things can change in the NFL. With five weeks to go, every win matters, and every loss can shift the standings. The Bears are rising, the Jaguars are surging, and the Ravens are suddenly on the ropes.
Buckle up. December football is here, and the road to the playoffs just got a lot more interesting.