The Patriots head to Jacksonville on Sunday with a point to prove, and the betting market is treating this one like a coin flip.
New England and Jacksonville both came into 2026 with big expectations after finishing among the AFC’s top three teams last season, but each has already taken a loss through two games. The Jaguars are now laying a field goal at home, with the total ticking up from 44.5 to 45.5 as oddsmakers continue to nudge this matchup toward a tight, lower-scoring kind of game.
For the Patriots, the biggest issue has been the offense. Drake Maye has thrown four interceptions, and New England has landed in the bottom 10 in EPA/Play.
That said, the defense has carried plenty of weight. The Patriots beat Pittsburgh at home in Week 2 behind a unit that has allowed just 16 points across two games, including only three against the Steelers.
That defensive strength is the main reason New England is still very much in the conversation here, even after Jacksonville opened as a 2.5-point favorite and moved to 3-point chalk early in the week. The Jaguars are coming off a loss to Denver after blowing a lead on Sunday, and while Week 1 was a different story - a dominant win over the Deshaun Watson-led Browns - there’s skepticism about leaning too hard on that result.
New England’s own offensive track record from last season matters, too. Maye and the Patriots were one of the best teams in the league in EPA/Play on offense a year ago, and there’s a belief that the first two weeks of 2026 aren’t the true standard. The return of TreVeyon Henderson in Week 2 also gave the run game a needed lift.
Jacksonville’s defense has been more vulnerable than the standings might suggest, allowing 6.1 yards per play, which ranks 29th in the NFL. That opens the door for New England to take another step forward on offense and maybe even steal the game outright.
Still, with the line sitting at three, the safer side is the Patriots getting the points. New England is 1-0-1 against the spread so far this season, and this looks like another spot where a strong defense can keep things close.
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For the Patriots, the appeal is obvious: a buy-low swing on a player with top-end talent who could still benefit from a change of scenery and a more structured environment. The fit gets even more intriguing because Mike Vrabel, an Ohio State alumnus, could be viewed as the kind of coach who might help bring out the best in Harrison, though questions about his toughness are part of what makes this such a risky proposition. [Read more 🡒]