AFC Playoff Picture: How the Jaguars’ Upset Win Shakes Things Up for the Patriots
The Jacksonville Jaguars might not have set out to help the New England Patriots, but their upset win over the AFC-leading Denver Broncos on Sunday just opened the door a little wider for Bill Belichick’s crew. The Patriots now have a clearer, albeit still challenging, path to a potential first-round bye - but only if they take care of business in their primetime showdown with the Baltimore Ravens.
Let’s break down where things stand in the AFC playoff race, what the Patriots need to do to climb to the top, and how the battle for the AFC East is shaping up with two weeks left in the regular season.
Where the Patriots Stand in the AFC
After Jacksonville handed Denver its third loss of the season, the Broncos dropped to 12-3. That gives New England (11-3) a chance to tighten the gap - or even leapfrog them - with a win over the Ravens on Sunday night. But it’s not as simple as “win and you’re in” when it comes to the No. 1 seed.
If the Patriots lose to Baltimore, they’ll fall to 11-4 - the same record as Jacksonville. And in that case, the Jaguars would jump ahead in the seeding due to a better conference record. That would bump New England down to the No. 3 spot, with the road to the Super Bowl likely running through someone else’s stadium.
So what needs to happen for the Patriots to snag the top seed in the AFC?
- Win out: That means beating the Ravens, then closing the regular season with wins over the Jets and Dolphins.
- Denver loses out: The Broncos would need to drop both of their final games - against the Chiefs and Chargers.
- Jacksonville drops at least one: The Jags finish the season against the Colts and Titans.
It’s a tough ask, but not impossible. If New England beats Baltimore, their odds of finishing atop the AFC get a major boost. Denver still holds the tiebreaker over the Patriots thanks to a better record against common opponents, but a single Broncos slip-up could change everything.
In short: Patriots fans will be watching more than just their own team the next two weeks. They’ll be hoping Kansas City and Los Angeles can take care of business against Denver - and that Jacksonville stumbles once along the way.
AFC Standings Snapshot
Here’s how things look heading into Sunday Night Football:
- Denver Broncos (12-3) - AFC West leader
- New England Patriots (11-3) - AFC East leader
- Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4) - AFC South leader
- Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6) - AFC North leader
- Los Angeles Chargers (11-4) - First Wild Card
- Buffalo Bills (11-4) - Second Wild Card
- Houston Texans (10-5) - Third Wild Card
- Indianapolis Colts (8-6) - Still in the hunt
- Baltimore Ravens (7-7) - Still in the hunt
Only these teams are still alive in the playoff race - the rest of the conference has been mathematically eliminated.
The AFC East Race: Still New England’s to Lose
While the Patriots are eyeing the No. 1 seed, they’ve also got a division title to secure. The Buffalo Bills (11-4) kept the pressure on with a win over the Browns, fresh off their emotional comeback victory against the Patriots last week.
Despite that loss, New England still controls its own destiny in the AFC East. A win over Baltimore would keep them in the driver’s seat. But even if they lose, they’re still in a strong position.
Here’s how the Patriots can clinch the division:
- Win out: Beat the Ravens, Jets, and Dolphins - no help needed.
- Buffalo loses out: If the Bills drop their final two games, New England takes the East regardless.
- Split the final two, Bills lose to Jets: If New England goes 1-1 in Weeks 17 and 18, and Buffalo loses to the Jets in Week 18, the Patriots still win the division.
The tiebreaker currently favors New England, which gives them some breathing room - but not much. A slip-up could open the door for Buffalo to sneak through.
If the Playoffs Started Today…
If the season ended right now, the Patriots would be the AFC’s No. 2 seed and host the No. 7 seed Houston Texans in the Wild Card round. And that’s no easy draw.
Houston’s defense has been one of the stingiest in the league this season, and they’ve made a habit of turning games into grind-it-out battles. For a Patriots offense that’s had its ups and downs, that could be a tough matchup right out of the gate.
What’s Next
The Patriots’ Sunday night clash with the Ravens is more than just another game - it’s a pivotal moment in the AFC playoff picture. A win puts them in prime position for a first-round bye.
A loss? Suddenly, they’re fighting to hold on to the division.
With two weeks left, it’s all still in play: the No. 1 seed, the AFC East crown, and a potential home-field advantage that could make all the difference in January.
Buckle up - the playoff race is just heating up.