ESPN’s latest round of division picks didn’t exactly hand the Patriots a warm welcome.
Three of the four reporters who weighed in on the 2026 AFC East picked the Bills, leaving only Boston’s Mike Reiss to back New England after the Patriots’ surprising 2025 run. That season, guided by NFL Coach of the Year and almost-MVP quarterback Drake Maye, ended with the Patriots winning the AFC East for the first time in six years and reaching the Super Bowl before the Seattle Seahawks exposed the weak spots in a rebuild that had been done in one offseason.
The Bills choice makes sense on paper. Josh Allen remains the kind of quarterback who keeps Buffalo in the conversation every year, and the Patriots are staring at a much tougher schedule in 2026. Still, Reiss saw enough to stick with New England and explained why he thinks the Patriots can pull it off again.
"Despite a tougher schedule and the likelihood they won't be able to duplicate their 14-3 record, the Patriots will still have enough to win the division. Key factors in the projection are Maye rising even higher in the NFL's elite QB ranks, a motivated Brown providing him a bona fide No. 1 receiver and the likely learning curve of Brady with the Bills, the only other team with a realistic chance of contending. "
That puts the spotlight right where it belongs: on Maye and A.J. Brown.
Maye, still only 23, has already shown how dangerous he can be, dragging a flawed 2025 offense to the Super Bowl with his ability to escape pressure and create plays. The numbers backed it up too, with his league-leading 72% completion and top NFL quarterback rating.
Brown changes the picture even more. His arrival gives Maye the true No. 1 target this offense has been missing, and the Patriots also added Romeo Doubs as the No. 2 receiver. That’s a real boost for a unit that should be better and, in Reiss’s view, good enough to keep New England in the division race.
Of course, this team isn’t built on offense alone. The Patriots still have thin spots, especially at tight end and on the defensive edge, where injuries and off-field issues have taken a toll. Mike Vrabel spent the offseason trying to patch things together, with mixed results, and there’s still work to do before the season starts.
Even so, the Patriots do have some proven pieces on defense. Milton Williams, Robert Spillane, Christian Gonzalez and All-Pro safety Kevin Byard III give the unit a real backbone, and that’s part of why Reiss’s pick isn’t just blind optimism.
The Bills are still the safe bet with Allen in the division. But if Maye keeps climbing, Brown delivers as advertised and the Patriots hold up across all three phases, New England has a path to doing it again in 2026.
In Other News...
Jets Turmoil Could Open A Huge Door For The Patriots
The early AFC East forecasts already have Buffalo on top and New England penciled in behind the Bills, but the division could still get a lot more interesting if the Jets keep spinning their wheels. One of the leagues more respected offseason takes points to Garrett Wilson as a player worth watching, and the reasoning is familiar: New York still lacks a clear long-term answer at quarterback, which can wear on a receiver who is supposed to be the centerpiece of the offense.
For the Patriots, that kind of unrest matters because it could reshape the division landscape they are trying to climb. A Wilson exit would not just be another Jets headache, it would remove one of the more dangerous weapons New England has to deal with twice a year, and it would do it at a time when the Patriots are trying to turn a projected second-place finish into something more meaningful. [Read more 🡒]
Patriots Still Have One Defensive Weak Spot They May Need To Fix
The Patriots went into the offseason with a defense that already looked sturdy at the top, then doubled down by keeping nine of last years 11 starters and adding DreMont Jones and Kevin Byard. On paper, that is the kind of retention and reinforcement that should keep New England competitive on that side of the ball, especially with established talent at the core and fewer obvious holes than in recent years.
Still, the concern around the unit is not the first string, it is what comes after it. Depth remains the lingering question, and that is why the Patriots have been connected to a veteran safety who can move around the formation and help in a pinch. He is not being viewed as a long-term fix, but for a team trying to protect itself against injuries and thin spots, he could be the sort of low-cost addition that makes sense if New England decides it needs one more layer of insurance. [Read more 🡒]