Survivor Pool players didn’t need much imagination in Week 5 - they just needed the favorites to behave - and that plan went sideways fast when the Dallas Cowboys got upset at home by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as 9.5-point favorites. The good news for anyone following the SI Betting team: neither editor backed Dallas, so those entries survived the carnage.
Now the focus shifts to Week 6, and the board looks different with bye weeks starting to squeeze the options. The Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, Miami Dolphins and Cincinnati Bengals are all off, which takes several familiar Survivor targets out of the pool. That’s especially notable because fading the 0-5 Dolphins has been one of the cleaner strategies so far this season.
There are still a few heavy favorites worth considering, though. The Los Angeles Rams are double-digit favorites at home against the Arizona Cardinals, while the Kansas City Chiefs, Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots are all laying at least a touchdown at home.
Peter Dewey is leaning into Indianapolis, even if he knows the Colts may be one of the more popular choices this week. He’s willing to use them at home against the Titans, with Indy sitting as a seven-point favorite and trying to move back to .500 at 3-3.
Tennessee has been rough from the start of the year, with Cam Ward and the offense ranking last in yards per play, 31st in EPA/Play and 26th in success rate during the 0-5 start. The Titans have failed to top 20 points in any game, and three times they’ve been held to 10 or fewer.
Dewey notes that Indianapolis hasn’t been sharp finishing drives, but Spencer Shrader gives the Colts a reliable way to put points on the board even when touchdowns are hard to come by. The defense has its own issues, allowing the third-most yards per play in the NFL, but Tennessee’s road record in the Ward era offers little reason for confidence: the Titans are 2-8 away from home and have covered in just four of those games. Indianapolis has also moved the ball better than Tennessee, including a 30-point outing against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 2, and ranks 21st in success rate and 22nd in EPA/Play.
“Indianapolis is going to be a popular pick in Survivor this week because it’s playing the Titans, but I’m willing to take a shot on Daniel Jones and company to get back to .500 at 3-3, especially at home. Indy is currently a seven-point favorite against the worst team in the AFC South.”
He also points out that there aren’t many better chances to use the Colts than this one, outside of their Nov. 15 home game against Miami. With bye weeks still coming, saving stronger teams for later matters, and he sees this as the spot to spend Indianapolis. He doesn’t expect Tennessee to suddenly clean things up on offense, and he’s comfortable backing the Colts to take care of business even if the margin doesn’t get out of hand.
“I don’t see many spots where I’d willingly take the Colts in Survivor, so this is a way to use them and hopefully advance to Week 7. With more bye weeks ahead, it’s important to save a few top teams - if possible - for a game that may not be as much of a sure thing.”
The New England pick comes from Iain MacMillan, and he’s riding the same basic idea: use a strong home spot now, because tougher opponents are still waiting on the schedule. He sees the Patriots as a team that flashed again last week, showing signs of the group that won the AFC last season, especially against weaker competition. New England’s defense remains a top-10 unit, and Drake Maye has the kind of edge that can punish a shaky secondary.
The numbers back that up. The Patriots rank 10th in EPA per play and 11th in opponent success rate, while the Jets sit 20th in EPA per play and 23rd in opponent success rate.
MacMillan also points to what’s ahead for New England - the Detroit Lions, Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos all loom later - which makes a home game like this the kind of spot to take advantage of. At Gillette Stadium, he’s comfortable rolling with New England against Geno Smith and Aaron Glenn.
“Plus, New England is 18-2 at home in its last 20 games against the Jets.”
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