With just two weeks left in the regular season, the AFC playoff picture is heating up-and the Patriots are right in the thick of it. After a gutsy comeback win over the Ravens last week, New England pulled even with the Broncos in the standings, setting up a high-stakes finish that could see them steal the No. 1 seed before the dust settles on the 2025 campaign.
But the path to that top spot is narrow. The Patriots need to win out-starting with a road trip to face the Jets this Sunday, followed by a home finale against the Dolphins.
On paper, it’s a manageable stretch. But as we’ve seen time and again in December football, nothing comes easy when playoff positioning is on the line.
That’s why all eyes in Foxborough were glued to the Christmas night showdown between the Broncos and the Chiefs. With Patrick Mahomes sidelined, there was hope that Denver might stumble at Arrowhead. But Bo Nix and the Broncos held firm, pulling out a late win to improve to 13-3 and keep their grip on the top seed.
So now, the pressure shifts back to the Patriots. If they want to keep pace-and keep their No. 1 seed hopes alive-they need to take care of business against a Jets team that’s had a rough go of it this season.
New York has been spiraling, and things got even tougher this week when they placed Justin Fields on injured reserve. That means rookie Brady Cook will get the start under center, fresh off a loss to the Saints. The Patriots defense, which just stifled Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, should be licking its chops.
Their first meeting back in Week 11-when Fields was still healthy-wasn’t much of a contest. If New England brings that same energy and execution, they should be in good shape.
But here’s where things get tricky. The Jets have nothing to lose, and that kind of freedom can be dangerous. Teams already out of the playoff hunt often play spoiler with reckless abandon, and there’s nothing they’d love more than to derail the Patriots’ postseason plans.
Add to that the fact that New England is dealing with injuries to key players coming out of that physical battle with Baltimore, and suddenly this game doesn’t feel like a layup. If the Patriots show up flat-like they did in the second half against Buffalo a couple of weeks ago-they could be in for a long afternoon at MetLife Stadium.
That said, if they can replicate the physicality, discipline, and late-game execution they showed against the Ravens, the Patriots should be able to handle business. And they’ll need to-because a loss this week would mean putting their fate in someone else’s hands, hoping the Chargers can somehow knock off the Broncos in Week 18.
The margin for error is razor-thin. But the opportunity is right there.
Two wins, and the Patriots could be looking at a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. It starts Sunday in New York.