If the New England Patriots want to lock down the AFC’s top seed, they’re going to have to fight for it-because the Denver Broncos aren’t backing down.
Denver pulled off its ninth straight win Sunday night, edging out the Commanders in overtime to improve to 10-2. That win vaulted the Broncos back into the No. 1 spot in the AFC, nudging ahead of New England thanks to a key tiebreaker advantage.
It wasn’t flashy, but it was effective-something that’s become a theme during this streak. The Broncos have now won four straight by three points or fewer, leaning heavily on a defense that’s been playing lights out and a poised Bo Nix, who continues to deliver when it matters most.
But the Patriots can reclaim the top spot with a win over the Giants on Monday night. That would move them to 11-2 and put them back in control of their own destiny with four games left.
Let’s break down how the playoff picture is shaping up in the AFC-starting with the current standings, the race for the No. 1 seed, and how the Wild Card matchups would look if the season ended today.
AFC Standings (Through Sunday Night)
- Denver Broncos (10-2) - AFC West leader
- New England Patriots (10-2) - AFC East leader
- Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4) - AFC South leader
- Baltimore Ravens (6-6) - AFC North leader
- Los Angeles Chargers (8-4)
- Indianapolis Colts (8-4)
- Buffalo Bills (8-4)
- Houston Texans (7-5)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6)
- Kansas City Chiefs (6-6)
The top of the AFC is a logjam, with seven teams sitting at 8-4 or better. The Broncos and Patriots are tied at 10-2, but Denver holds the edge-for now.
Race for the No. 1 Seed: Broncos vs. Patriots
Denver and New England are locked in a tight battle for the AFC’s top spot, and with both sitting at 10-2, it comes down to tiebreakers. The first tiebreaker-head-to-head-doesn’t apply, as the two teams don’t face each other this season.
The second is conference record, and both are 6-2 against AFC opponents. So it moves to the third tiebreaker: record against common opponents.
That’s where the Broncos have the edge. They’re 4-0 against teams both they and the Patriots have played, while New England is 3-1, thanks to a Week 1 loss to the Raiders.
But this is far from over. Both teams still have four AFC matchups remaining, and any slip-up could swing the tiebreaker.
Remaining Schedules:
- Patriots: vs. Giants, BYE, vs.
Bills, at Ravens, at Jets, vs. Dolphins
- Broncos: at Raiders, vs. Packers, vs.
Jaguars, at Chiefs, vs. Chargers
Each team has a challenging road ahead, with division matchups and playoff contenders scattered throughout. If either one runs the table, that No. 1 seed-and the coveted first-round bye-will be theirs.
AFC East Outlook: Patriots in Control, But Not Comfortable
The Patriots are still in the driver’s seat in the AFC East, but the Bills are hanging around. Buffalo’s win over Pittsburgh on Sunday tightened the gap to two games. A Patriots win Monday would stretch that lead to 2.5, giving New England some breathing room heading into their Week 14 bye.
But there’s a major showdown looming in Week 15: Patriots vs. Bills. That game could be the tipping point in the division race.
Tiebreakers also favor New England at the moment. The Patriots are 3-0 in the division, while the Bills are 2-2, having already lost to both New England and Miami. If the Patriots can take care of business against the Jets and Dolphins in Weeks 17 and 18, they’d finish 5-1 in the AFC East and hold the divisional tiebreaker over Buffalo.
Remaining Schedules:
- Patriots: vs. Giants, BYE, vs.
Bills, at Ravens, at Jets, vs. Dolphins
- Bills: vs. Bengals, vs.
Patriots, at Browns, vs. Eagles, vs.
Jets
Buffalo’s schedule isn’t doing them any favors. They face Joe Burrow and the Bengals next, and Burrow is undefeated in his starts this season.
Then it’s the Patriots, followed by two more tough matchups against playoff-caliber teams. If New England handles their business, they could lock up the division before Week 18 even arrives.
If the Playoffs Started Today: Wild Card Matchups
Here’s how the AFC bracket would look if the season ended right now:
- No. 1 Broncos: First-round bye
- **No. 2 Patriots vs.
No. 7 Bills**
- **No. 3 Jaguars vs.
No. 6 Colts**
- **No. 4 Ravens vs.
No. 5 Chargers**
This is where things get really interesting. The Wild Card race is as tight as it gets, with the Colts, Chargers, and Bills all sitting at 8-4. The Texans are right behind them at 7-5, riding a four-game win streak and looking very much like a team nobody wants to face in January.
If the Patriots can reclaim the No. 1 seed, they’d earn that all-important bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. But if they slip to No. 2, they’d face a dangerous Wild Card opponent-possibly a familiar division rival in Buffalo, or a red-hot Houston team that’s been surging at just the right time.
Bottom Line
The AFC playoff race is heating up, and there’s no room for error at the top. Denver and New England are neck-and-neck for the No. 1 seed, with tiebreakers and late-season matchups ready to tip the scales.
In the East, the Patriots have the upper hand, but the Bills are lurking. And in the Wild Card chase, it’s a dogfight with several teams still very much alive.
December football is here, and every game matters. Buckle up.