With the AFC Championship Game set to kick off Sunday at Empower Field at Mile High, the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots are preparing for a heavyweight clash that’s been years in the making. Both teams enter the title bout with identical 14-3 records, but the paths they took to get here-and the circumstances they now face-couldn’t be more different.
Broncos’ Breakthrough Season Hits a Major Hurdle
Denver earned the AFC’s top seed after a dominant regular season that saw them take control of the West and secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Last week, they survived a thriller against the Buffalo Bills, pulling out an overtime win that felt like a signature moment in a season full of them.
But the celebration was short-lived. Quarterback Bo Nix, the rookie who had become the heartbeat of Denver’s offense, suffered a broken ankle in that game and has been ruled out for the remainder of the postseason. That leaves Jarrett Stidham stepping into the spotlight on Sunday, tasked with leading a team that’s been riding the energy and poise of Nix all year.
Stidham isn’t new to the system-he’s had time under Sean Payton and has shown flashes in limited action-but there’s no sugarcoating the challenge. Replacing a quarterback who thrived in high-pressure moments and kept the offense humming is no small feat, especially with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.
Patriots Leaning on Continuity and Confidence
On the other sideline, New England is rolling into Denver with momentum and a healthy roster. The Patriots earned the No. 2 seed after winning the AFC East and have looked sharp in the postseason, dispatching the Chargers in the wild-card round and taking care of the Texans last week.
This team has been built around a clear identity: efficient quarterback play from rookie Drake Maye, a physical defense, and the steady hand of head coach Mike Vrabel, who’s brought a familiar toughness to the franchise. The Patriots aren’t flashy, but they’re disciplined, opportunistic, and built for this kind of stage.
And the experts are buying in.
The Predictions Are In - and They’re Lopsided
A wide majority of analysts are siding with New England heading into Sunday. Out of 25 experts across major outlets, 21 are picking the Patriots to punch their ticket to the Super Bowl. Just four are backing the Broncos.
Let’s break it down:
- Vinnie Iyer (The Sporting News) sees the Patriots winning 24-13, pointing to Denver’s reliance on Nix’s late-game magic and doubting whether Stidham can replicate that under playoff pressure. He credits New England’s edge at quarterback and coach, likening Maye and Vrabel to a modern-day Brady and Belichick pairing.
- Bill Bender (The Sporting News) also has the Patriots winning, 24-16. He compares Stidham’s situation to Jeff Hostetler’s Super Bowl run with the Giants, but questions whether the Broncos have had enough time to adjust. His take: unless New England unravels on the road, it’s going to be tough sledding for Denver.
- ESPN’s panel is heavily tilted toward the Patriots. Of the ten analysts listed, only Jeremy Fowler is picking the Broncos. The rest-including Matt Bowen, Mike Clay, and Dan Graziano-are backing New England.
- MMQB is slightly more balanced, but still favors the Patriots. Conor Orr, Gilberto Manzano, and Clare Brennan are among the few giving Denver a shot, while the likes of Mitch Goldich and Matt Verderame are siding with the Pats.
- CBS Sports leans the same way. Pete Prisco is one of the rare voices picking the Broncos, but the rest-including Jared Dubin, Ryan Wilson, and Jamey Eisenberg-are expecting New England to take care of business.
What It All Means
This game is shaping up to be a classic case of momentum versus adversity. The Patriots have been consistent, healthy, and well-coached, and they’re playing their best football at the right time. The Broncos, meanwhile, are staring down a massive challenge without their starting quarterback, hoping that home-field advantage and a resilient defense can carry them through.
Stidham doesn’t need to be a hero-he just needs to be solid. If Denver can run the ball, play clean football, and make a few timely plays on defense, they’ll have a shot. But against a Patriots team that’s been buttoned-up all season and knows how to win in January, the margin for error is razor-thin.
Sunday’s AFC Championship isn’t just a battle for a Super Bowl berth-it’s a test of depth, coaching, and poise under pressure. And if the experts are right, New England might just have the edge in all three.