Dana Holgorsen’s view of Nebraska football has been boiled down to one blunt measuring stick: get to 21 first.
That’s how the veteran offensive coordinator framed it during his Tuesday press conference, and the numbers back up the idea. In Big Ten games, Nebraska has been much more likely to win when it reaches 21 points before its opponent. When the Huskers fail to get there, the results have been grim.
Under Matt Rhule, Nebraska is 3-17 in Big Ten games when it scores fewer than 21 points. That list includes losses to Oregon and Indiana, along with defeats last season against Iowa, Penn State, USC, and Minnesota. Even when Nebraska does eventually reach 20, it has still gone just 2-13 when the other team wins the race.
The broader conference picture makes Holgorsen’s point look even stronger. Since 2023, Nebraska is 17-1 when it hits 21 first, according to Eric Hess, who goes by Arbitrary Analytics on Twitter. That 94.4% winning percentage ranks seventh in the Big Ten.
Holgorsen called Big Ten football a "race to 21". Since 2023, a Big Ten team that hits 21 first has won 91.6% of its games. The Huskers win often when they get to 21 first, but they've also played the second-most low-scoring games in the league over that time period pic.twitter.com/5OHn49C5Wq
- Arbitrary Analytics (@arbitanalytics) October 28, 2026
Dana Holgorsen says Nebraska football must win Big Ten’s race to 21 points
Only Michigan (31-0), Northwestern (17-0), UCLA (17-0), Oregon (36-1), Washington (27-1), and Ohio State (38-2) have better winning percentages when they win that race.
That group tells the story from another angle, too. Nebraska’s name sitting alongside teams like Northwestern and UCLA suggests that a boom-or-bust offense can still rack up wins when it lands the first three touchdowns. Michigan, Oregon, Washington, and Ohio State have been elite offensively for most of the stretch from 2023 into mid-season 2026, so their presence near the top is no surprise.
The flip side is brutal. Even those top programs fall apart when they’re the ones chasing 21.
Michigan is 1-8 when its opponent gets there first. Northwestern is 4-17.
UCLA is winless in 17 such games. Ohio State is 0-2, with those losses coming 30-24 to Michigan in 2023 and 32-31 to Oregon in 2024.
For Nebraska, the math is pretty simple: win the race to 21, and the path gets a lot cleaner. The Huskers are also second in the Big Ten in games where neither team reaches 21, sitting at 5-7 in those tighter contests. Iowa is the only team ahead of them there, and the Hawkeyes are 10-7 in those low-scoring games.
Nebraska has already shown one sign of life in this area this season. In its 48-23 win over Maryland, the Terps led 23-14 before the Huskers pulled away. That result hints that Nebraska can flip the script in a strange scoring environment.
But there’s another wrinkle: the Huskers entered 2026 at .500 in games where neither Big Ten team reached 21. This fall, they are 0-2.
Washington is a useful test case for what Nebraska is dealing with on the other side. The Huskies have only lost once after getting to 21 first this year, and that came in a 25-21 loss to USC after Washington had led 21-10. When Washington loses the race, the defeats can snowball fast - it trailed Minnesota 21-7 before a 27-24 loss, and it was down 27-0 to Iowa before losing 41-24.
That is the cautionary tale Nebraska has to keep in mind. Even when an opponent starts slowly, it can still score enough to turn the game around. If Nebraska wants to handle the rest of the season the way Holgorsen believes it can, it has to get to 21 first - and then keep adding on, something it hasn’t done consistently lately.
In Other News...
Holgorsen Just Made Nebraskas Offensive Priority Much Clearer
Dana Holgorsen spent part of Nebraskas bye week making the offensive priorities feel a little more straightforward. The Cornhuskers have leaned on quarterback Anthony Colandrea for steady effort and leadership even through the recent losses, and Holgorsen made it clear that he views those traits as part of the foundation. The bigger issue, at least from the coordinators perspective, is getting the offense to play cleaner and more consistently around him.
As Nebraska turns back toward game prep, the focus shifts to areas Holgorsen wants sharpened most, especially the running game and more reliable play from the receivers. Colandrea has also acknowledged he needs to elevate his own play to better help the group, which puts the burden on more than one part of the offense as the Cornhuskers try to reset coming out of the break. [Read more 🡒]
Nebraskas Blackout Is Becoming Something Much Bigger For Husker Fans
Nebraskas Blackout is no longer just a one-night gimmick. Athletic director Troy Dannen said the Huskers will make it an annual event, and this years version against Washington is set for a 7 p.m. kickoff, giving the atmosphere a prime-time stage that should fit the look and feel the school is building around it. Dannen also pointed to new field design elements tied to the event, while tying the presentation to the bigger picture of a program he said has made competitive progress under the current coaching staff.
The Blackout announcement was part of a broader afternoon of news around Nebraska athletics, including word that longtime Husker basketball announcer Kent Pavelka will retire after this season. For football fans, though, the annual Blackout adds another layer to a home schedule that now has a defined signature game, and one that Nebraska clearly wants to turn into a recurring part of the identity around Memorial Stadium. [Read more 🡒]
Nebraska Fans Face A 2027 Schedule Shakeup They Didn't Expect
Nebraskas football calendar is headed for a reset, and not just in the abstract future-tense way schedule talk usually gets handled in January. Athletic director Troy Dannen said the plan for next year will change to fit the expected 24-team playoff model, which would require 10 games against Power Four opponents. The Big Ten is already working through the scheduling adjustments, and that means the kind of boardroom math that can quickly alter who shows up on a fall Saturday in Lincoln.
For Nebraska fans, the ripple effects could be felt well beyond the opponents list. Some nonconference games may disappear, other Power Four matchups could be added, and Memorial Stadium will also be operating with reduced seating capacity because of renovations. Put together, its a reminder that the Huskers are not only dealing with a changing postseason landscape, but also a home schedule that may look different in ways that matter to fans planning around it. [Read more 🡒]