Nebraska heads to Piscataway with its season hanging in the balance, and the timing of Matt Rhule’s latest move says plenty about where things stand. After the Huskers’ fourth straight loss and fourth straight game without reaching 21 points, Rhule fired offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen and handed the job to Glenn Thomas. Now Nebraska gets a shot at the Big Ten’s worst scoring defense in Rutgers.
That’s why this game feels bigger than a normal conference trip. If Nebraska loses to Rutgers for the first time in program history, Matt Rhule’s grip on the job would be in serious doubt.
Even a strong win won’t erase what happened over the last month, but it would at least keep the season from slipping completely away. The Huskers need something real in Piscataway.
The offense has been uneven all year, and Anthony Colandrea’s play has followed that same arc. He opened the season looking sharp, then cooled off as the weather turned. Against Illinois, he bounced back in a few ways, posting his second-best completion percentage and his best passing yardage total, though that number was helped by a fortunate catch-and-run from Jacory Barney.
Still, the advanced numbers tell a less flattering story. Colandrea’s EPA per play was only 0.08 against Illinois, and in Nebraska’s losses he has been below 0.1 EPA per play every time.
During the winning streak, he was at 0.25 or better in each game. That’s the gap between a quarterback playing like one of the nation’s top 30 and one performing at an average level.
Thomas has a chance to jolt that group against a defense that has struggled badly.
Rutgers may be in even rougher shape at quarterback. Starter Dylan Lonergan has already been ruled out, and backup AJ Surace is questionable. If both are unavailable, the Scarlet Knights would likely turn to Sean Ashenfelder, a sophomore who has thrown only 11 passes over the last two seasons in Piscataway.
The passing game is already a concern for Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights sit 68th in EPA per dropback, just behind Nebraska, but they are missing Lonergan and star receiver KJ Duff.
That makes it hard to see them reaching their season average of 0.07 EPA per pass. Through the air, this could be a long day.
Nebraska also has a clear path on the ground. Jamal Rule should be a central figure again, especially after Nebraska used him more as both a runner and receiver against Illinois.
The Huskers are undefeated in 2026 when they rush for at least 150 yards, and they have lost every game when they fail to get there. Rutgers has been vulnerable against the run, ranking 112th in EPA allowed per carry, so there should be room to work.
Rutgers does have production in its backfield. Antwan Raymond and Clay Thevenin have each gone over 450 yards this season, and both are averaging 5.3 yards per carry. The Scarlet Knights’ rushing attack has been solid overall, sitting at 0.05 EPA per carry and 60th nationally.
Even so, this matchup comes back to Nebraska’s ability to score. Rutgers ranks 132nd in EPA per pass allowed and 112th in EPA per rush allowed, worse than Bowling Green and Maryland in both categories this season. That kind of defense should give the Huskers a real chance to move the ball and put points on the board.
The Nebraska defense should have a favorable setup too. Rutgers has been explosive through the air, ranking in the top 15 in explosive pass-play rate, but Duff’s absence changes that picture. He has accounted for half of Rutgers’ touchdown catches this season, and without him the Scarlet Knights lose their biggest big-play threat.
For Nebraska, the formula is simple: play aggressively, score early, and make this one look comfortable. A convincing win would not fix the last four games, but it could give the Huskers something to build on before Senior Day against Ohio State and into 2027.
With the coaching change and the opponent in front of them, this looks like the spot where Nebraska’s offense should wake up again. The prediction here is Nebraska 35-10.
In Other News...
Nebraska Just Got A Huge Opening In Its Bowl Push
Rutgers spent much of its recent news conference focused on Greg Schianos contract extension through 2027, but the conversation also turned quickly to the bigger picture for Saturdays matchup with Nebraska. The Scarlet Knights are trying to navigate a stretch that has already been complicated by injuries to key players, including top receiver KJ Duff and quarterback Dylan Longeran, and that changes the way this game looks for a Nebraska team still trying to strengthen its bowl case.
Matt Rhule has already made clear that Rutgers is not a soft landing spot, pointing to the Scarlet Knights running game and special teams as real concerns for the Cornhuskers. Even so, the injury situation gives Nebraska a chance to take advantage of a suddenly more fragile opponent, and in a late-season race where every opening matters, this one stands out as the kind of break a bowl hopeful needs to notice. [Read more 🡒]
Nebraskas Secondary Suddenly Has A Late-Season Problem
Nebraskas secondary took an unwelcome hit late in the season with Andrew Marshall undergoing foot surgery, a development that leaves the Cornhuskers without one of their most experienced defensive backs for the stretch run. Marshall had been a two-year starter, so his absence strips some stability from a unit that had already been counting on continuity as the schedule tightened up.
For a defense trying to hold together in November, losing a veteran presence in the back end is never simple, especially when the margin for error gets smaller every week. Nebraska now has to sort out how it wants to replace that experience and communication on the fly, with the timing of the injury making the challenge even more difficult. [Read more 🡒]
Nebraskas Offensive Shakeup Just Raised A Bigger Matt Rhule Question
Nebraskas latest staff move only sharpened the spotlight on Matt Rhules offensive side of the ledger. The Cornhuskers fired offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen and extended defensive coordinator Rob Aurichs contract, a combination that underscored where the program feels most stable and where the questions keep piling up. For Rhule, the numbers tell a pretty clear story: when his Nebraska team gets to 30 points, things usually go well, and when it falls behind at halftime, the results have been grim.
Now the bigger issue is what comes next on offense, especially with uncertainty hanging over Glenn Thomass future role. Nebraska has already shown it is willing to move quickly when the structure on that side of the ball does not feel right, and the latest shakeup suggests Rhule is still searching for the formula that can make the offense match the rest of the program. The defense has its footing. The offense, and the people guiding it, are still very much in flux. [Read more 🡒]