As the college football season wraps with Indiana’s storybook national championship win over Miami, the focus now shifts to the hardwood-and this college basketball season is already delivering the drama. From breakout freshmen to a tightly contested race for top seeds in March, there’s no shortage of storylines. And if you’re looking for a team to root for with that same underdog energy Indiana brought to the gridiron, Nebraska might just be your squad.
Nebraska’s Rise: From Basement to Bracket Contender
Let’s be honest-no one saw this coming. Nebraska, projected to finish dead last in the Big Ten (14th out of 14), has flipped the script in stunning fashion.
Alongside Arizona, they’re one of just two remaining unbeaten high-major programs. And this isn’t a team with a deep well of basketball tradition to draw on.
In fact, Nebraska has never won an NCAA Tournament game. Under head coach Fred Hoiberg, the Cornhuskers went just 14-45 in his first two seasons.
That’s not a rebuild-that’s a resurrection.
Now, they’re sitting as a No. 2 seed in the latest Bracketology model, knocking on the door of a No. 1 seed. The road ahead includes heavyweights like Michigan and Purdue-both current No. 1 seeds-which will test Nebraska’s staying power.
And yes, the predictive metrics hint at a possible regression as the Big Ten grind wears on. But regardless of how the rest of the season unfolds, what Nebraska’s doing right now is historic.
This is a program redefining its ceiling in real time.
Bracketology Snapshot: Who’s on Top?
Here’s a look at the projected No. 1 seeds in each region:
- Midwest: Michigan
- East: Duke
- West: Arizona
- South: Purdue
Nebraska headlines the No. 2 line alongside Houston, Illinois, and Gonzaga. Other notable placements include UConn and Florida as 3-seeds, and Alabama and Iowa State on the 4-line. For bubble-watchers, Missouri, Virginia Tech, Baylor, and Ohio State are barely hanging on as the last four in, while Oklahoma State, LSU, UCLA, and San Diego State are just outside the cut line.
Quad 1 Wins: The Golden Ticket
If you’re wondering why some teams with solid records or high NET rankings are seeded lower than expected, look no further than the Quad 1 column. Utah State is a perfect example-they’re No. 21 in the NET rankings but land as a 10-seed due to a lack of Quad 1 wins.
Saint Mary’s, NC State, Ohio State, and Indiana are in similar boats. For those teams, even one Quad 1 win could flip the script.
Just ask last year’s North Carolina squad, which snuck into the First Four with a 1-12 Quad 1 record. Sometimes, one signature win is all it takes.
Texas A&M and the Rise of “Buckyball”
Texas A&M is heating up at the right time. Under first-year head coach Bucky McMillan, the Aggies have gone 4-1 in SEC play, with four of their five Quad 1 or 2 wins coming since the calendar flipped to January. That surge has them tied with Florida atop the SEC and slotted as a 9-seed.
Their only blemish in league play? A double-overtime heartbreaker at Tennessee.
That one loss is the difference between sharing first place and owning it outright. Still, A&M is trending in the right direction heading into a week that includes home matchups with Mississippi State and South Carolina.
Both are winnable games, but they’re also classified as Quad 3. In other words, the Aggies can’t afford to slip.
One bad loss could undo weeks of resume-building.
Seton Hall’s Slippery Slope
Seton Hall is walking a tightrope. After a two-game skid-including a Quad 2 home loss to Butler-the Pirates are clinging to a 9-seed.
Tuesday night’s showdown with St. John’s at Madison Square Garden looms large.
A loss there, and Seton Hall edges closer to the bubble, putting the Big East in danger of becoming a three-bid league.
Right now, UConn, St. John’s, and Villanova look solid.
Seton Hall is the next best hope. The Pirates have one of the nation’s top-10 defenses under coach Shaheen Holloway, but their offense-ranked No. 144 by KenPom-isn’t doing them any favors.
Every possession matters for this group. Expect a gritty, high-stakes finish to the season in Newark.
The Rematch Dilemma
As conference realignment continues to reshape the landscape, the NCAA Tournament selection committee faces a growing challenge: avoiding rematches. Last year’s bracket featured three potential second-round matchups between conference foes, though none materialized. The committee still aims to minimize these repeat matchups, but the rules give them some flexibility.
Here’s the breakdown:
- Teams from the same conference that played once during the season can meet as early as the second round.
- If they played twice, they shouldn’t meet before the Sweet 16.
- If they squared off three times, they can’t meet until the Elite Eight.
As for nonconference matchups, the committee will avoid them in the First Four and first round, and try to avoid them in the second round. But when it comes to seeding, the committee prioritizes keeping teams on their natural seed line over shuffling them just to prevent a rematch.
Looking Ahead
With plenty of season left to play, the bracket is far from set. But a few things are already clear: Nebraska is the feel-good surprise of the year, Texas A&M is surging behind a fresh coaching face, and Seton Hall is fighting to stay in the mix. Meanwhile, the weight of Quad 1 wins continues to shape the field, and the selection committee has its hands full navigating the rematch maze.
So buckle up. March may still be weeks away, but the madness is already here.