FCS upsets over Power Four opponents have gone from a seasonal nuisance to something that feels almost mythical.
The numbers tell the story in plain English. Power conference teams have won 125 straight games against FCS competition, and the last time an FCS team broke through was in Week 4 of the 2023 season, when Sacramento State - now headed for the FBS in 2026 - beat Stanford 30-23. Two full seasons have come and gone since then without another shocker.
The divide has only grown wider in the NIL and transfer portal era. Since 2022, Power Four teams are 223-2 (.991) against FCS opponents.
In the 16 seasons before that, from 2006 through 2021, they were 747-38 (.952). The trend isn’t limited to the top tier, either: Group of Six teams are 238-20 (.922) against FCS opponents over the last four seasons, a dip from the previous 16-year stretch.
A big part of the squeeze is talent retention. Sacramento State isn’t the only FCS program moving on this season, either.
North Dakota State is making the jump as well, and the Bison’s track record against higher-level competition speaks for itself. They went 6-4 against power-conference teams since 2006 and 9-5 against FBS opponents overall, making them the most successful FCS program of the era.
Jacksonville State, which made the same move in 2023, also left behind a résumé with four FBS wins in its final 13 FCS seasons, including victories over Ole Miss in 2010 and Florida State in 2021.
So if the streak is going to end in 2026, it’s going to take the right matchup, the right quarterback and a little chaos. There are more than 120 FBS-vs.-FCS games on the schedule, including 57 FCS teams facing Power Four opponents.
Eleven of those games involve a preseason top-25 FCS team. Those are the ones most likely to produce a surprise.
Here are six that stand out.
South Dakota State at Northwestern might be the cleanest upset candidate on the board. Northwestern coach David Braun knows exactly what kind of challenge this is; he spent four seasons as North Dakota State’s defensive coordinator from 2019-22.
The Wildcats have already been burned three times by FCS teams since 2006, losing to New Hampshire in 2006, Illinois State in 2016 and Southern Illinois in 2022. South Dakota State comes in with serious credentials, too, having won back-to-back FCS national titles just two years ago.
Quarterback Chase Mason is back after missing five games last season because of injury, and while the Jackrabbits are 0-4 against Power Four teams since their 2015 win at Kansas, two of those losses - at Minnesota in 2019 and at Iowa in 2022 - were by a combined 11 points.
Youngstown State at Kentucky has the feel of a game that could get uncomfortable fast if the Wildcats don’t settle in early. It would be a rough start to the Will Stein era if Kentucky opened by stumbling against the Penguins, especially after landing a top-10 transfer portal class.
But Youngstown State has a serious difference-maker in Beau Brungard, last season’s Walter Payton Award winner. He threw for 3,234 yards and 26 touchdowns while also running for 1,468 yards and 27 scores.
North Dakota at Nebraska brings back a little recent history. The Fighting Hawks were already in Lincoln in 2022 and pushed Nebraska for three quarters before the Huskers pulled away 38-17.
Eight days later, Scott Frost was out. Nebraska has never lost to an FCS opponent, but North Dakota has the kind of personnel that can make this one tricky if the Huskers drift.
Dual-threat quarterback Jerry Kaminski and All-American edge rusher Lance Rucker, an Omaha native, are both back after a 2025 team that nearly knocked off Kansas State. North Dakota was 42 seconds from a win in Manhattan.
Tennessee Tech at Mississippi State lands in a part of the calendar that could be dangerous for the Bulldogs. Jeff Lebby’s team could take a step forward in Year 3, especially with quarterback Kamario Taylor emerging, but there’s also a path where Mississippi State arrives in November worn down and on a long losing streak after battling through one of the toughest schedules in the country. Tennessee Tech went 11-2 in 2025, and coach Bobby Wilder has added another strong transfer class for 2026.
Austin Peay at Vanderbilt is another one to watch if the Commodores back up after their breakthrough run. Vanderbilt’s first 10-win season in program history came in 2025 with Diego Pavia at quarterback, and he’s gone now, leaving Clark Lea to prove the success can hold.
A step back is expected, but the Commodores still remember how ugly it got in 2022, when they lost 23-3 to East Tennessee State. Austin Peay has its own playmaker in quarterback Chris Parson, a Mississippi State transfer and a finalist for the Walter Payton Award last season.
He threw for 3,003 yards and 23 touchdowns and added 743 rushing yards and 14 more scores.
Monmouth at West Virginia rounds out the group, and the Hawks have already shown they can make life miserable for Group of Six teams. They beat FIU in 2024 and pushed Charlotte to the wire in 2025.
This will be their first crack at a Power Four opponent, though, and West Virginia’s perfect 24-0 record against FCS teams is the obvious hurdle. Still, this is a very different Mountaineers roster under Rich Rodriguez.
He and his staff have turned over the roster twice since arriving, bringing in more than 70 new players for 2026. That kind of overhaul can bring talent, but it also brings uncertainty about how quickly everything clicks.
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