Friday night’s college football board is packed, but the betting angles point to a few spots that stand out. SMU, South Florida and Nebraska all land in the mix, and Nebraska is the one getting the strongest endorsement for the night.
SMU draws Virginia Tech in a game where the numbers lean toward the Mustangs. SMU checks in 49th in net adjusted EPA per play and eighth in net success rate, while Virginia Tech sits 87th and 52nd in those categories. The matchup also tilts SMU’s way through the air: the Mustangs rank in the top 10 in both pass EPA and pass success rate, and Virginia Tech’s defense has struggled there, ranking 74th in opponent EPA per pass and 80th in pass defense success rate.
Another Friday play targets East Carolina against South Florida, and the case there is built on the Pirates’ offense struggling to find any traction. East Carolina ranks 128th in adjusted EPA per play and 126th in offensive success rate, which is a rough setup against a Bulls defense that comes in 23rd in opponent adjusted EPA per play and 13th in defensive success rate. That’s why the pick is South Florida plus 2.5.
The strongest conviction, though, is on Nebraska. Even with a few painful losses in the rearview, the Cornhuskers still grade out well in the metrics, ranking 28th in net adjusted EPA per play and 10th in net success rate.
Illinois, by comparison, is 72nd and 99th in those same categories. The read here is that Nebraska is being undervalued after three straight losses, while Illinois may be getting a little too much credit for three straight wins.
That makes Nebraska the best bet on the board, with the points laid.
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Nebraska Gets A Useful Early Test Its Defense Cant Ignore
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Lindenwood comes in with a recent win over East-West University and a loss to TCU, which makes it a useful measuring stick for a Nebraska team still sorting out its identity. These are the kinds of games that can expose bad habits or confirm progress, and for the Cornhuskers, the defensive end is the part that cant be ignored as they keep working through the non-league slate. [Read more 🡒]