Indiana’s visit to Nebraska comes with a simple headline and a tougher question underneath it: can the Cornhuskers turn an undefeated start into something bigger against college football’s reigning national champion?
Matt Rhule still hasn’t beaten an AP top 25 team since taking over at Nebraska, and this matchup gives him another shot at changing that. The Huskers are 5-0, but they’ve been beating opponents that don’t resemble what they’ll see from Indiana, which arrives with a 21-game win streak.
The SP+ model likes the Hoosiers to keep that run going. Its projection has Indiana winning 31-24, with an expected margin of 7.7 points on the road. SP+ also gives Indiana a 69 percent chance to win outright.
For those unfamiliar, SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that tries to forecast results by focusing on “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”
The model has been solid so far this season, too, going 146-122-3 against the spread for a 54.4 win percentage.
Nebraska does have some things working in its favor. The offense has been productive, ranking in the top 15 in points per game and scoring at least 31 points in every contest so far, with 48 points in three of its five games.
Indiana, meanwhile, looked more like itself in a 47-15 win over Rutgers last week after some uneven stretches. The Hoosiers still bring one of the nation’s most dangerous ground games, averaging 253 rushing yards per game.
That’s the issue for Nebraska: it has handled the level of competition in front of it, but Indiana is a different animal. Home field should help the Huskers stay within range early, but the Hoosiers have enough punch to create separation and do it by double digits.
The pick: Indiana beats Nebraska and covers the spread.
In Other News...
Nebraska Gets Rare Good News Before A Big Test Against Indiana
Three days before kickoff, Nebraska is getting a cleaner injury picture than it has seen in a while heading into a Big Ten test against Indiana. Only tight end Carter Nelson and linebacker Gage Stenger are listed as doubtful, while five players have remained out since the start of league play. On the other side, Indiana is dealing with its own mix of availability, though cornerback A.J. Harris and defensive end David Ndukwe are back in the fold.
That matters for a Nebraska team that has spent much of the season managing personnel issues and trying to keep its depth intact. Offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen said running backs Jamal Rule and Mekhi Nelson have been practicing and could be available if needed, which at least gives the Cornhuskers some flexibility as they prepare for a game that could hinge on who is able to suit up and who can handle an expanded role. [Read more 🡒]
Nebraska Faces A Defining Test Against Indiana In Brutal Conditions
Nebraska gets a measuring-stick opportunity in Lincoln on Saturday morning, with Indiana coming in as the defending national champion and FOX carrying the game to a national audience. The matchup arrives with wind expected to be a major factor, which should put an even bigger spotlight on Nebraskas improved offensive line and how well the Huskers can handle a disciplined Indiana team that has earned plenty of respect for the way it plays.
For Nebraska, the challenge is as much about structure as star power, because this is the kind of game that can expose flaws quickly in rough conditions. Indiana arrives favored at the betting window, but the early kickoff and the weather figure to make this feel less like a standard Big Ten showcase and more like a test of poise, execution and coaching at every level. [Read more 🡒]
Nebraska Faces A Defining Week With One Big Roster Concern
Nebraska heads into this week with some clarity on the injury front, even if not complete comfort. Jamal Rule and Andrew Marshall are available as the Cornhuskers prepare to face Indiana, which helps stabilize a roster that has been trying to get itself organized at just the right time. It is the kind of update coaches and fans can at least build around, especially with conference play continuing to demand depth and flexibility.
Carter Nelson remains doubtful, though, and that is the detail Nebraska will keep monitoring as the matchup approaches. For a team trying to stack together enough healthy pieces to handle a meaningful stretch, availability can be as important as game plan. There is also broader Nebraska interest elsewhere this week, with former Husker Cam Jurgens landing in a trade from the Eagles to the Ravens, a reminder that the states football storylines rarely stay in one place for long. [Read more 🡒]