After a narrow road loss to third-ranked Michigan earlier this week-without Rienk Mast and Braden Frager in the lineup-Nebraska basketball returns to Pinnacle Bank Arena for a high-stakes showdown with Illinois on Sunday. And make no mistake: this one has major Big Ten implications.
The Huskers already own a win over the Illini this season, thanks to Jamarques Lawrence’s clutch game-winner in Champaign. That 83-80 victory remains Illinois’ only blemish in conference play.
With Michigan sitting atop the Big Ten at 10-1, the winner of Sunday’s game will join them in a tie for first place. So yeah, this one’s big.
Injury Watch: Frager and Mast Game-Time Decisions
The availability of Frager and Mast looms large. Frager, who’s been dealing with a lower-body issue, was recently spotted at a high school basketball game-bootless-which is an encouraging sign.
Mast missed the Michigan game due to illness and was considered a game-time decision then. With five days of recovery behind him, there’s cautious optimism he could suit up.
Both remain game-time calls, but Nebraska would love to have its full rotation back against an Illinois team that’s been surging.
Illinois’ Offensive Machine Is Rolling
Illinois enters the game riding a 10-game win streak since the Nebraska loss, and they’ve been lighting it up. The Illini rank sixth in the nation in KenPom’s overall efficiency rankings, and they boast the No. 1 adjusted offense in college basketball. Even without starting point guard Kylan Boswell-who’s out for the season-Brad Underwood’s squad hasn’t missed a beat.
Freshman guard Keaton Wagler has stepped up in a big way. The 6-foot-6 Kansas native is averaging 21.4 points per game in conference play, shooting a blistering 50.4% from the field and 47.1% from beyond the arc. He’s draining over three triples per game and giving defenses nightmares.
And he’s not alone. Andrej Stojakovic (13.6 ppg) and David Mirkovic (12.5 ppg) are both steady double-figure scorers. This is a deep, balanced Illinois offense that can hurt you in a lot of ways.
Key 1: Win the 3-Point Battle
This game might come down to who gets hotter from deep-and who can defend the arc better.
Illinois is second in the Big Ten in made threes per game during conference play (11.6), second in percentage (36.5%), and first in attempts (31.8). Underwood has always encouraged high-volume shooting from deep, and Wagler is as dangerous as they come.
But here’s the twist: Nebraska leads the Big Ten in both 3-point makes per game (11.8) and 3-point percentage (38.1%). These are the two most prolific and accurate long-range shooting teams in the league. Expect fireworks.
Defensively, both teams give up their fair share of threes. Nebraska allows 7.9 per game (10th in the Big Ten), but opponents are hitting just 30.4% (4th). Illinois, meanwhile, gives up 8.8 makes per game (12th) and allows opponents to shoot 31.8% (8th).
In the first matchup, Nebraska hit 12 threes at a 46% clip. Illinois hit 10, but shot just 34%.
That difference in efficiency was a game-changer. If Nebraska wants the sweep, they’ll need to win this battle again.
Key 2: Hold Their Own on the Glass
Illinois doesn’t just shoot it well-they crash the boards hard. The Illini lead the Big Ten in offensive rebounds per game (11.1) and grabbed 33% of their misses in the first meeting with Nebraska.
The Huskers held their own that night, pulling down offensive boards at a 27% clip. On the season, they rank fifth in the Big Ten in defensive rebounds per game and third in limiting opponents’ offensive rebounds (just 7.5 per game). But this will be a test.
If Illinois is rebounding a third of their misses again, Nebraska could be in trouble. Keeping that number under 30% would be a quiet but crucial win.
Key 3: Stay Out of Foul Trouble
One of Nebraska’s underrated strengths this season has been their discipline. They don’t foul much, they don’t turn it over, and they rarely give opponents easy points at the line-just 14.8 free throw attempts allowed per game in Big Ten play, third-best in the league.
But that discipline slipped against Michigan. The Wolverines got to the line 24 times and made 18 of them.
That’s well above the 10.4 free throws Nebraska typically allows per game. Illinois shot 20 free throws in the first meeting, with Nebraska whistled for 21 fouls-again, above their average of 14.
If the Huskers can get back to their usual defensive fundamentals-staying vertical, moving their feet, and avoiding silly fouls-they’ll put themselves in a much better position.
Prediction: Huskers Protect the Vault
Assuming Frager and Mast are back, Nebraska has the tools to get this done. The Huskers have been terrific at home, and even without two key players, they went toe-to-toe with Michigan on the road and nearly pulled it off.
Their defense has been elite. Their shooting at home has been lights out. And they’ve already shown they can beat Illinois.
Expect a high-scoring, fast-paced game with plenty of threes flying. But if Nebraska can stay disciplined, hold their own on the boards, and hit their shots-especially from deep-they’ll have a real shot at pulling off the season sweep and making a serious statement in the Big Ten title race.