Nebraska basketball is doing something special this season - and the country is starting to take notice. At 20-0 overall and 9-0 in Big Ten play, the Huskers are making a serious case to crack the Top 5 when the new college basketball polls drop on Monday. And they haven’t just been winning - they’ve been rewriting expectations.
But now comes the real test.
With a tough stretch ahead and the potential absence of standout freshman Braden Frager due to an ankle injury, Nebraska is entering the heart of its Big Ten schedule with both momentum and some uncertainty. The Huskers have flipped the script on several matchups that once looked like probable losses, and now many of those games are sitting in coin-flip territory - a testament to just how far this team has come.
Let’s take a closer look at what lies ahead for Fred Hoiberg’s squad, using ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) to break down the probabilities. These aren't just numbers - they paint a picture of how Nebraska’s path to a Big Ten title (and maybe more) could play out.
Jan. 27 at Michigan - BPI Win Probability: 19.3%
This is a tough one.
A road game in Ann Arbor is never easy, and the BPI reflects that. Nebraska’s chances are slim here, especially if Frager isn’t at full strength.
Michigan’s size and athleticism pose real challenges, and the Wolverines are desperate for a statement win. This could be a gut-check game for the Huskers - the kind that tells you what kind of team you really are.
Feb. 1 vs. Illinois - BPI Win Probability: 53.0%
This is where things start to get interesting. Illinois is a physical, battle-tested team, but Nebraska gets them at home, where the Huskers have been nearly untouchable.
This one’s a toss-up on paper, but if the crowd at Pinnacle Bank Arena brings the energy - and they usually do - Nebraska has a real shot to make another statement.
Feb. 7 at Rutgers - BPI Win Probability: 88.8%
This is one of the more favorable matchups down the stretch.
Rutgers has struggled to find consistency this season, and Nebraska’s defense should be able to lock things down on the road. A win here would be crucial for keeping momentum going as the schedule tightens up.
Feb. 10 vs. Purdue - BPI Win Probability: 53.2%
Circle this one. Purdue is always a heavyweight in the Big Ten, and this could be one of the games that defines Nebraska’s season.
Another coin-flip matchup, but again, the Huskers get this one at home. If they can contain Purdue’s frontcourt and hit shots from the perimeter, they’ve got a legitimate chance to pull off something big.
Feb. 14 vs. Northwestern - BPI not listed
Northwestern has been a tricky team this year - capable of big wins but also prone to cold stretches. This one falls right in the middle of a brutal stretch for Nebraska, so fatigue could be a factor.
Still, it’s a winnable game, especially in Lincoln.
Feb. 17 at Iowa - BPI Win Probability: 47.7%
Another near-even matchup, and another tough road environment.
Iowa’s pace and offensive firepower make them dangerous, especially at home. Nebraska will need to control tempo and limit second-chance points to come out on top here.
Feb. 21 vs. Penn State - BPI Win Probability: 95.0%
This is one Nebraska should take care of, plain and simple. Penn State has struggled mightily this season, and the Huskers should be able to handle business in front of their home crowd.
These are the games you have to win if you want to stay in the Big Ten title race.
Feb. 25 vs. Maryland - BPI Win Probability: 92.3%
Another favorable matchup. Maryland has some talent, but Nebraska’s depth and defensive discipline give them the edge here.
This could be a game where the Huskers look to fine-tune things heading into March.
Feb. 28 at USC - BPI Win Probability: 66.5%
A late-season, non-conference road trip to L.A. is a bit of a curveball, but Nebraska’s chances look solid.
USC has had an up-and-down year, and this could be a résumé booster for the Huskers if they handle it right. The key will be staying focused and not letting the travel disrupt their rhythm.
March 3 at UCLA - BPI not listed
The regular season wraps up with another West Coast test, this time against a UCLA team that’s always dangerous, especially at home. Depending on how the previous few weeks go, this could be a pressure-packed game with major seeding implications - both in the Big Ten Tournament and the NCAA Tournament.
Bottom Line:
Nebraska has already surpassed expectations, but the next few weeks will determine just how high this team can climb.
With several toss-up games and a few tough road tests, the Huskers will need to stay healthy, stay sharp, and lean on their depth and defensive identity. If they can navigate this stretch with poise, they won’t just be a Top-5 team - they’ll be a legitimate threat come March.