Josh Pate isn’t shy about being out on an island with his picks - and when it comes to Miami, he’s planted his flag. On his show and again on the CanesinSight Podcast, Pate laid out exactly why he’s backing Mario Cristobal and the Hurricanes, even with a powerhouse like Indiana standing in the way.
Let’s be clear: this isn’t about doubting Curt Cignetti or Indiana. It’s about believing in what Cristobal is building in Coral Gables - and in quarterback Carson Beck, who’s shown he can rise to the moment. As Pate put it, “Who’s ever gone wrong doing such things?”
If Miami pulls this off, it would be seismic - not just for the program, but for Cristobal’s legacy. “It would make Mario a legend in Coral Gables,” Pate said.
And he’s not wrong. Plenty of coaches have come through Miami trying to resurrect the swagger and identity of The U.
Cristobal, a former Hurricane himself, might actually be the one to do it.
To understand how far Miami has come, you’ve got to remember where they started. Before Cristobal arrived, the Hurricanes hadn’t posted back-to-back double-digit win seasons since 2002-03.
That’s a full generation of fans who hadn’t seen Miami at its best. And 2022?
That was rock bottom. A 5-7 season, losses to Middle Tennessee State and Duke - at home.
“People thought Mario inherited a good roster,” Pate said. “He didn’t.”
What Cristobal walked into wasn’t just a rebuild - it was a full reset. “Sometimes your entry point is rock bottom.
Sometimes you have to torch the barn and kill the rats,” Pate said. That’s about as raw and real as it gets in major college football.
But Cristobal didn’t flinch. He laid out the plan in detail, and Miami bit the bullet in 2022 and 2023, choosing long-term structure over short-term Band-Aids.
And now? The results are showing.
The old criticisms - that Cristobal was just a recruiter, that his in-game decisions were shaky - have gone quiet. That’s not a coincidence.
“He took that personally,” Pate said. “If your quarterback has accuracy issues, you work on accuracy.
If your situational management is an issue, you either fix it or hire people who will.” That’s exactly what Miami has done.
Inside the program, the energy is different. “The intensity in that building is off the charts,” Pate said.
“Not just this week, but on a random Tuesday in March during spring practice.” It’s not for everyone - and that’s the point.
Cristobal isn’t trying to build something average. He’s trying to build something elite.
“Mario Cristobal is not for everybody,” Pate noted, “but neither is Kirby Smart, Ryan Day, or Nick Saban.”
That’s the kind of company Cristobal is aiming to keep - and part of his legacy will be recreating a winning culture at Miami, one that hasn’t truly existed in years.
And yet, even after watching Indiana dominate the Peach Bowl - a performance Pate said felt like watching the national title game - he still circled back to Miami. Part of that is emotion.
He backed the ‘Canes early in the year, took heat for it, and now wants to see it through. But the other part?
That’s the film.
Pate laid it out simply: “Is Miami’s best good enough to beat Indiana? Yes.
Do I need that for an entire season? No - I need it for four quarters.”
That’s the path. Miami doesn’t need to be dominant for 12 games - they just need to be elite for 60 minutes.
And if they can make Indiana uncomfortable, especially on third down, that could be the difference. Pressure on Fernando Mendoza, solid play from Carson Beck, and home-field energy?
That’s a recipe.
But it won’t be easy. Indiana is ridiculously efficient.
Mendoza, their Heisman-winning quarterback, is playing even better now than when he took home the trophy. “If you let him get in rhythm like Oregon did - 11 of 14 on third down - you’re cooked,” Pate warned.
There’s also the concern of Miami’s inability to fully capitalize on dominance. Against Ole Miss, they controlled the first half and still only led by four. Indiana, Pate said, is more efficient than Ole Miss - and if Miami lets them hang around, even a 17-10 or 21-14 lead late might not be safe with Mendoza getting the ball back.
Still, the Hurricanes have the kind of punch that can end a game in a blink. “Miami brings a Deontay Wilder right hand,” Pate said.
“That’s different than anything Indiana has faced.” And Mark Fletcher?
According to Pate, he’s the best running back Indiana will see all season - a bruiser who can find daylight and finish runs with authority.
But Indiana is a machine. Their execution, attention to detail, and football IQ are elite.
Pate described a play that should’ve gone for 100 yards - perfectly blocked, motioned, schemed. But Indiana’s nose guard fought through two blocks, tracked the cutback, and made the stop for two yards.
That kind of strain and discipline shows up on nearly every snap.
And that’s the difference. Indiana doesn’t rely on superhero moments.
Mendoza is their guy, sure, but he’s not throwing for 300 yards every week. “They don’t take the field saying, ‘Tighten up the cape, we need you,’” Pate said.
“That’s why I ultimately think they’re the better team, even if Miami has better individual talent.”
Still, this isn’t a long shot for Miami. “This is not a lottery ticket,” Pate emphasized.
“It’s a real football case.” There’s a path.
It’s narrow, but it’s there.
Pate’s bottom line? He trusts Miami in crunch time - but he trusts Indiana more.
“They’re the most efficient team I’ve seen, maybe ever,” he said. And that’s what makes them so dangerous.
Not just that they made the playoff again - but that their execution has hit a level that feels almost unnatural in college football.
So while Miami might have the flash, the firepower, and the home crowd, Indiana brings the kind of cold, clinical efficiency that wins championships. And in a game this big, that might be the edge that matters most.