With just a few games left in the men’s NCAA Tournament Sweet 16, one Cinderella story has already emerged: No. 9-seeded Iowa has danced its way into the Elite Eight.
After toppling Florida, the defending national champions, Iowa continued its impressive run by defeating the No. 4 Nebraska Cornhuskers.
Now, they're set to face a familiar opponent in No. 3-seeded Illinois. The Hawkeyes might be the underdog, but they’re proving they belong on this stage.
**No. 9 Iowa Hawkeyes vs.
No. 3 Illinois Fighting Illini**
The odds might not be in Iowa's favor, with an upset chance pegged at 28.5 percent, but don't count them out just yet. Iowa's previous matchup with Nebraska was a nail-biter, with only a few points separating the teams per 100 possessions. It was practically a toss-up.
Against Nebraska, Iowa executed their game plan to perfection by controlling the pace. They managed to slow the game down to a 60-possession contest, despite Nebraska's early success from three-point range.
The Cornhuskers led for most of the game, but Iowa’s resilience shone through. They capitalized on turnovers, outscoring Nebraska 20-7 in that department, and closed with a 15-6 run.
Iowa’s strategy of driving into the gaps wore Nebraska down, leading to a poor shooting performance from the Cornhuskers in the second half. Nebraska struggled from beyond the arc, hitting just 6 of 24, and couldn’t keep up with Iowa’s depth, losing the bench-scoring battle by 18 points. A critical misstep in the final seconds, with Nebraska having only four players on defense, sealed the game for Iowa.
Now, Iowa takes on Illinois, a powerhouse in the Big Ten and the seventh-ranked team nationally. Illinois thrives on offense, particularly from beyond the arc, with 50.5 percent of their shots coming from three-point land. They also dominate the offensive glass, snagging nearly 40 percent of their missed shots.
Illinois showcased their defensive prowess by shutting down No. 2-seeded Houston, controlling the perimeter and the paint, and outshooting the Cougars from both two-point and three-point ranges.
Yet, Iowa has shown they can hang with the best. Illinois doesn’t force many turnovers, giving Iowa opportunities to score.
History has shown that sometimes the underdog prevails. In our database, while favorites win most similar matchups, there have been notable exceptions like Butler over Pittsburgh in 2011 and Wichita State over Gonzaga in 2013.
Both were cases of smart, slower teams outlasting their higher-seeded opponents.
So, while Illinois enters as the favorite, Iowa’s determined play and strategic prowess mean they’re not just here to make up the numbers. This matchup could be closer than many expect.