Nebraska gets a chance to reset against Illinois, but the matchup comes with plenty of warning signs.
The Huskers are coming off a rough stretch, and the Washington loss was especially damaging because Nebraska had the edge in the matchup and still managed only seven points in meaningful play. That followed the same basic pattern as the previous two defeats, only this time against a Washington team that did not bring the talent level of Indiana or Oregon.
Now comes an Illinois team that has found its footing. The Fighting Illini have won three in a row, including a win over Oregon, and Nebraska is only 2-4 against Bret Bielema.
That includes the game that spoiled Nebraska’s Big Ten debut in 2011. Illinois is also the kind of disciplined, well-coached opponent that has given Matt Rhule and his staff problems.
Still, there are openings here if Nebraska can actually take them.
Anthony Colandrea has been one of the better additions to the Huskers, and his dual-threat ability has helped Nebraska win games and stay in position against Indiana. But the passing game has gone sideways during the losing streak. Colandrea has completed fewer than 60% of his throws in each of the last three games.
The numbers back up the eye test. Game on Paper has Colandrea 81st in the country in EPA per dropback and 63rd in passing success rate.
If that’s where the passing game sits, Nebraska needs to be careful not to lean on it too much. The Huskers are currently fourth in the Big Ten in pass attempts per game, but Colandrea has been better in the first half than in the second half this season.
That could matter a lot here, because Illinois has been vulnerable through the air. The Illini rank 123rd in EPA per pass defense, and Nebraska should have a real chance to move the ball with its passing game if Colandrea is sharp early.
Illinois has its own portal quarterback in ECU transfer Katin Houser, and he’s already beaten Nebraska once. Houser was Michigan State’s quarterback in 2023 when the Spartans beat the Huskers 20-17 in East Lansing. In 2026, he has been productive when healthy, even though he missed a game because of injury.
Houser ranks 34th nationally in EPA per dropback and 16th in passing success rate. Like Colandrea, he has been much stronger in the first half, but the split is even more dramatic.
He sits in the 93rd percentile for EPA per play in the first half and drops to the 42nd percentile in the second half. For a Nebraska defense that has had second-half issues, that is a problem waiting to happen.
The ground game may be just as important for Nebraska. The last two games have been the Huskers’ worst rushing performances of 2026.
Against Oregon, Nebraska failed to reach 100 rushing yards for the first time. Against Washington, the Huskers did not score a rushing touchdown for the first time.
Jamal Rule has flashed star potential, though injury has limited him during conference play. He carried 13 times against Washington and averaged 5.5 yards per carry.
If he is healthy, Nebraska should feed him more often. Rule’s usage has been heavily tilted toward the first half, with 65% of his carries and catches coming before halftime.
For a team that often plays with a lead late, that should point Nebraska toward a heavier dose of the run game to shorten the second half.
Illinois is built to keep pounding away. Rob Aurich called the Illini ground game “not flashy, but consistent.”
That fits. Aidan Laughery is tied with Jamal Rule at 6.3 yards per carry, which ranks third in the Big Ten, and Illinois is averaging 5.2 yards per rush as a team, fourth in the conference.
The Illini are more efficient throwing the ball than running it, with a team success rate of 48.2% on passes and 42.5% on rushes. But they still bring size and power to the backfield.
Javari Bennet weighs 235 pounds, and Jordan Anderson weighs 240. Illinois also has the eighth-shortest average third-down distance on offense in the country at 5.73 yards.
That puts pressure on Nebraska’s front. The Blackshirts have forced the sixth-longest average third-down distance in the nation, and if they can keep Illinois in longer-yardage situations, that would go a long way toward slowing the Illini’s bruising backs.
The defensive challenge is clear, but Nebraska has shown it can handle strong offenses like Oregon and Indiana. The bigger question is whether Colandrea can settle in and deliver a more reliable passing performance.
Illinois runs a 3-3-5 look with eight-man drops, which should take away some of the deep shots Nebraska leaned on against Washington. Dana Holgorsen said Nebraska should instead work with quicker throws such as slants and perimeter passes.
That approach makes sense, especially because Illinois is allowing the highest opponent completion percentage in the country. Nebraska needs Colandrea to take what the defense gives him and put together long, steady drives that help the Huskers’ defense breathe. This week is about consistency, not volume.
It is a big moment for Rhule and Nebraska, which needs to stop the skid and shake off the label of a team that fades in November. The matchup does offer some favorable spots, but Nebraska has too many issues hanging over it - the Bret Bielema history, the prime-time struggles, and the second-half problems that keep showing up.
Even with the openings, Nebraska has not earned the benefit of the doubt yet. The Huskers have work to do before anyone can trust them to close out a game like this, and the feeling here is that Illinois finds a way again, 21-17.
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