Nebraska’s path through the 2026 season looks forgiving at the start, then turns sharp in a hurry.
ESPN’s latest FPI release paints that picture clearly for Matt Rhule’s team. The Huskers sit at No. 30 in the rankings, and the early non-conference slate gives them a real chance to build momentum before the Big Ten grind starts. After that, though, the forecast gets much less friendly.
The opener comes September 5 against Ohio, and ESPN gives Nebraska a 91.7% chance to win. The Bobcats are No. 97 in the FPI, and while they did finish 9-4 and second in the MAC last season, this is the kind of game Nebraska should handle.
A week later, Bowling Green visits Lincoln on September 12. The Eagles are even lower in the rankings at No. 123, and Nebraska’s win probability jumps to 95.7%. Eddie George now leads Bowling Green, adding a small wrinkle to the matchup, but the numbers still point heavily toward the Huskers.
North Dakota rounds out the non-conference schedule, and Nebraska is projected to win that one 94% of the time. The source notes that North Dakota is one of the stronger FCS programs, which explains why this game doesn’t carry quite the same certainty as Bowling Green. Even so, all three September games come with better than a 90% chance of a Nebraska win, making a 3-0 start look like the expected outcome.
The first real test arrives September 26, when Michigan State comes to Lincoln for the Big Ten opener. ESPN gives Nebraska a 67.9% chance to beat the Spartans, who are ranked No.
- That’s a solid edge, but not a lock.
Maryland follows, and Nebraska’s chances rise again to 79% against the No. 61 Terrapins. If the Huskers take care of those early games, they’d be 5-0 and one win from bowl eligibility.
Then the schedule starts to bite. Indiana is listed as the No. 6 team in the FPI, and Nebraska’s chance of winning drops to 19%. The Hoosiers are expected to take that one, despite some outside chatter that Nebraska could spring the upset.
The toughest assignment on the slate comes at Oregon. In Eugene, Nebraska is given just an 8% chance to win, the lowest of any game on the schedule.
Washington’s trip to Lincoln looks more manageable, at least on paper. The Huskies are No. 26 in the FPI, but Nebraska gets a 56.8% chance thanks in part to home-field advantage.
That game is followed by a trip to Illinois, where the Huskers are nearly even with the Illini. Nebraska’s win probability there is 50.8% against the No. 39 team.
Rutgers offers Nebraska its best shot at a sixth win if things go sideways in the previous two games. The Huskers are given a 67.5% chance to beat the Scarlet Knights. By that point, Nebraska could already have six wins in hand and be chasing a seventh.
Ohio State is next, and the Buckeyes are the top-ranked team in the FPI. Even so, Nebraska’s win probability is listed at 10.6%, which is actually better than its odds at Oregon. The source points to Nebraska’s recent near-misses against Ohio State, including 2024 when the Buckeyes won the national title.
The regular-season finale at Iowa is another tough read for Nebraska fans. The Huskers have just a 38.4% chance to win in Iowa City.
As always, these numbers can shift as the season unfolds. But for now, ESPN’s forecast says Nebraska should cruise early, survive a few coin-flip games, and then brace for a brutal stretch once the Big Ten schedule really kicks in.
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Carter Nelson is heading into fall camp with a chance to reshape the conversation around his future in Nebraskas offense. With the Huskers carrying more help at tight end, the discussion has shifted toward whether Nelsons best path is staying there or moving wider, where his pass-catching ability could make him harder to keep off the field. For a program still sorting out how to maximize its skill talent, Nelson has become one of the more intriguing names to watch as camp opens.
Damon Benning has already gone as far as putting Nelson among his top six or seven wideouts, a notable change of heart that says plenty about how much his outlook has grown. Elsewhere, The Athletics quarterback tiers placed Anthony Colandrea in the fourth group of Big Ten passers, a reminder that Nebraskas broader personnel picture is still being sorted out on multiple fronts. For the Huskers, the next few weeks are less about labels than answers, and Nelson may be one of the clearest tests of how flexible this offense can be. [Read more 🡒]
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Matt Rhule Still Has To Solve Nebraskas Two Biggest Problems
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