Nebraska enters 2026 with ESPN’s metrics pointing toward a season that looks a lot like the middle ground: not a breakthrough, not a collapse, but a team expected to land somewhere around bowl eligibility.
The Huskers check in at No. 30 in ESPN’s College Football Power Index, which sounds strong until you zoom in on the Big Ten picture. In that league, Nebraska is slotted ninth. ESPN’s numbers project 6.7 wins and 5.3 losses, with a 74.5% chance to reach six wins and a 0.0% chance to run the table.
The rest of the forecast is a long shot’s menu. Nebraska’s chances of winning the Big Ten sit at 0.7%, while the College Football Playoff odds are 7.3%. ESPN gives the Huskers a 0.4% shot at reaching the national championship game and a 0.1% chance to win it all.
The schedule is doing plenty of the heavy lifting in those projections. Nebraska’s strength of schedule ranks 20th nationally, and four Big Ten teams are facing even tougher slates: Ohio State at 8th, Michigan at 16th, Northwestern at 17th and USC at 19th.
ESPN’s model also leaves room for the league’s top teams to keep stacking up title-game odds. FPI says the first 59 teams in its rankings have at least some chance to make the national championship game, including No.
59 San Diego State of the Pac-12. Ohio State leads the way with a 28.2% chance to reach the championship game, followed by Texas at 22.8%.
When it comes to winning the title, Ohio State again sits first at 17.1%, with Texas next at 13.2%. Notre Dame is at 10.5%, Oregon at 9.8% and Georgia at 9.0%.
For Nebraska, the win projection lines up almost exactly with Bet MGM’s number, which also has the Huskers at 6.5 wins. That puts the consensus squarely in the six-to-seven-win range, a total that would send Matt Rhule’s team to a bowl for the third straight season. Nebraska finished 7-6 in each of the past two years.
That kind of season would probably feel acceptable to some, especially with Indiana, Ohio State and Oregon on the schedule. Eight wins, though, might be asking a lot.
There are also reasons ESPN’s model may be giving Nebraska a little more respect heading into the season. Anthony Colandrea is set to take over at quarterback, and he’ll be working behind a rebuilt offensive line anchored by center Justin Evans and guided by new offensive line coach Geep Wade. Rhule also brought in a new defensive coordinator, Rob Aurich, who arrives after his last two seasons at San Diego State.
The Big Ten itself is spread all over the FPI board, from No. 1 Ohio State all the way down to No.
71 Purdue. Nebraska’s 2026 opponents are stacked in between:
Ohio State: 1st (at Memorial Stadium, Nov. 21)
Oregon: 4th (at Autzen Stadium, Oct. 17)
Indiana: 6th (at Memorial Stadium, Oct. 10)
USC: 13th
Michigan: 15th
Penn State: 17th
Iowa: 25th (at Kinnick Stadium, Nov.
Washington: 26th (at Memorial Stadium, Oct.
Nebraska: 30th
Illinois: 38th (at Gies Memorial Stadium, Nov. 7)
Wisconsin: 43rd
Northwestern: 60th
Maryland: 61st (at Memorial Stadium, Oct. 3)
Minnesota: 63rd
UCLA: 64th
Michigan State: 65th (at Spartan Stadium, Sept. 26)
Rutgers: 67th (at SHI Stadium, Nov. 14)
Purdue: 71st
Nebraska finished last season ranked 44th in the index, so starting 2026 at 30th is an improvement. ESPN says its Football Power Index “measures team’s true strength based on net points scale, expected point margin vs. average opponent on neutral field.” The Huskers’ 2025 weekly FPI marks were 21, 21, 22, 23, 31, 34, 32, 31, 39, 44, 44 and 44, which makes the new starting point look better than where they ended.
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An Ohio judges injunction against the NCAA has added a fresh wrinkle to the eligibility picture for players trying to squeeze out one more season, including former Nebraska guard Jamarques Lawrence. The ruling gives 24 players a path to five seasons of competition and adds another legal precedent to a growing set of challenges around how the NCAA plans to handle its new five-year framework.
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USA TODAYs evaluation points straight at the trenches, where Nebraskas line play on both sides of the ball remains the clearest test of whether Rhule can push the program higher. The offense and defense both had stretches that undercut the bigger picture, even with Emmett Johnson producing a standout rushing season, and the late-season issues gave the ranking a harsher edge. Nebraska now turns the page toward Sept. 5, when it opens 2026 at Memorial Stadium against Ohio on FS1. [Read more 🡒]