Adam Carriker has put his 2026 Nebraska football forecast on the board, and the number he landed on says plenty about how tricky this season looks in Lincoln.
Nebraska enters the year with more talent and more experience, but the schedule is loaded with problems. The Huskers will see five preseason ranked opponents, and right now they’re favored in just three Big Ten games.
ESPN’s win probabilities tell a different story, though, giving Nebraska better than a 50-50 shot in eight games. That gap is what makes this projection so hard to pin down.
Carriker walks through the schedule one game at a time, and the early stretch is simple: the first three games have to be wins. Nebraska needs to get to 3-0 before the Big Ten grind really starts.
After that comes Michigan State, which Carriker views as one of the season’s biggest must-win spots. Maryland also looms as a game Nebraska can’t afford to treat casually, especially if the Huskers are still unbeaten heading into it.
Indiana is where the temperature really rises. If both teams are 5-0, Carriker says that game becomes a true measuring stick. Nebraska doesn’t have to win it, but it does need to show it can hang with a quality opponent.
Then comes Oregon on the road in Eugene, another test of where this program stands. Carriker’s point is clear: Nebraska can’t afford to get overwhelmed there. Even if the Huskers lose, the performance has to show real progress.
The Washington blackout game at home on October 31 is the one Carriker has circled as a win, and that result would put Nebraska at 6-2.
From there, the margin for error shrinks fast. Illinois on a Friday night could be one of Nebraska’s toughest coaching tests, and Rutgers is no lock either. Carriker thinks Nebraska has to grab at least one win across those two games.
He has Ohio State as a loss, then Nebraska heading into the Iowa rivalry game and a bowl.
His bigger picture read is that if this really is Matt Rhule’s best Nebraska team so far, it should show cleaner football, fewer mistakes and more players emerging as leaders.
Carriker’s final call: Nebraska goes 8-5. The real debate now is whether that would be the floor, the ceiling, or exactly where this team lands.
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