NC State vs. UNC: Will Wade's First Shot at Shifting the Tobacco Road Power Balance
Every season, there’s one game that NC State fans circle in bold red ink: the home showdown with North Carolina. But this year? This one hits different.
There’s more than just bragging rights on the line. This is Will Wade’s first crack at the Tar Heels - and his first real chance to plant a flag in the Tobacco Road turf.
It’s not just about one win. It’s about signaling a shift in the ACC landscape, one where the Wolfpack aren’t just hanging around the top - they’re in the thick of it, year in and year out.
That’s part of why Wade was brought in. To challenge the hierarchy. To make NC State a team that doesn’t just talk about competing with UNC and Duke - but actually does it.
And make no mistake: the guys in Chapel Hill know it. They’ll be coming into Raleigh with their own edge, eager to remind everyone who’s run this stretch of North Carolina for decades.
A Wolfpack win would only add fuel to the idea that Wade is building something real, something that can last. A Tar Heel victory, though, would quiet that noise - at least for now.
Wade hasn’t publicly taken aim at UNC or Duke. He hasn’t said he’s here to flip the Tobacco Road Order on its head. But the message has been clear from the jump - in his tone, in his confidence, in the way he’s carried himself since day one.
So far, he’s done his job in-state. Two wins over Wake Forest?
Check. But this is a different beast.
This is UNC. And for NC State fans, these are the games that matter most.
A Pivotal Game in the ACC Race
Beyond the rivalry, this one carries serious weight in the ACC standings.
NC State sits at 9-4 in conference play. UNC is right behind at 8-4.
A win gives the Wolfpack some breathing room and a stronger hold on a top-five spot. A loss?
Suddenly, they’re neck-and-neck with the Heels, tied in the middle of a crowded ACC race.
And the matchup? It’s about as even as it gets. The advanced metrics paint these two squads as mirror images - similar offensive efficiency, defensive profiles, and tempo.
But there’s one major wrinkle: UNC will almost certainly be without star guard Caleb Wilson, who broke his hand last week against Miami. That’s a massive blow for the Tar Heels - Wilson’s been their engine, their closer, and their most dynamic playmaker. His absence shifts the spotlight, and the pressure, onto NC State.
Oddsmakers have taken notice, too. The Wolfpack enter as a 3.5-point favorite - a rare position of power in this rivalry.
But with that comes expectation. And that’s a different kind of challenge.
Tournament Stakes: Win and You’re In
Let’s be clear: NC State is in a good spot for the NCAA Tournament. No one’s sounding the alarm.
But Wolfpack fans have seen how quickly things can change. They’ve lived through the bubble sweats.
They know better than to get comfortable.
A win over UNC would all but punch their ticket. It would go down as a Quad-1A win - the kind that selection committees love.
A loss? It doesn’t sink their chances, but it does tighten the screws.
And with a few tough games still on the schedule, nothing is guaranteed.
History Favors the Bold
There’s something to be said for beating UNC in your first try as NC State’s head coach. It’s been done - and when it happens, it tends to make a statement.
Kevin Keatts did it. On the road.
In overtime. Against a top-10 UNC team.
Al Freeman went nuclear that day, dropping 29 points and hitting all seven of his threes.
Sidney Lowe did it too. At home.
Against a #3-ranked Tar Heel squad. That night, the Pack shot the lights out - 60% from the field, 53% from deep - with five players in double figures.
Not everyone’s pulled it off. Mark Gottfried dropped all three of his first-year matchups with the Heels.
But when it happens, it resonates. It sets a tone.
It tells your fanbase - and your rivals - that you’re not here to play second fiddle.
The Bottom Line
This isn’t just another chapter in the Tobacco Road rivalry. It’s a measuring stick.
For Will Wade. For NC State.
For where this program is headed.
A win would be more than just a notch in the standings - it would be a statement. That the Pack is ready to rise. That the balance of power in North Carolina might be shifting.
And in a rivalry built on moments, this one has the chance to be unforgettable.