As NC State gears up for a crucial final stretch of the season, head coach Will Wade is facing a familiar question: can Terrance Arceneaux be the defensive difference-maker the Wolfpack need against elite offensive competition? Based on Wade’s own comments during his weekly radio show at The Pit in downtown Raleigh, the answer is trending toward yes-if Arceneaux can stay healthy.
“I hope so,” Wade said when asked about increasing Arceneaux’s minutes. “He hurt himself in the Louisville game.
He hurt his ankle again, ankle and Achilles area again. That’s why we pulled him out in the Louisville game.
But we need Terrence. Terrence brings an athleticism.
He can make some plays that other guys can’t make. We need Terrence to really, really help us down the stretch.”
Wade’s comments echo what many NC State fans and analysts have been thinking: Arceneaux’s length, athleticism, and defensive instincts might be just what the Pack need to survive a gauntlet of high-powered offenses in the coming weeks. With Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia all looming-each boasting offensive efficiency ratings north of 120-NC State will need to find ways to manufacture stops, especially when the offense isn’t clicking.
And here’s where the numbers start to tell a compelling story.
So far this season, NC State is undefeated when Arceneaux logs 20 or more minutes. That’s not a coincidence-it’s a trend worth paying attention to. In games where he’s played extended minutes, Arceneaux has consistently provided defensive value that doesn’t always show up in the box score but makes a clear impact on the court.
Take the Louisville game, for instance. Despite the loss, Arceneaux posted a +2.9 Defensive Player Box Metric (DPBM), the highest among any NC State player with significant minutes.
The next closest? Matt Able at +1.1.
Everyone else? In the negatives, aside from DW, who barely broke even at +0.01.
That kind of margin speaks volumes about Arceneaux’s ability to disrupt opposing offenses.
Yet, in most of NC State’s toughest matchups-games against teams like Auburn, Texas, Virginia, and Kansas-Arceneaux hasn’t seen the floor for more than 17 minutes. The lone exception? SMU, where he played 21 minutes and the Wolfpack walked away with a win.
Let’s break it down:
- Louisville: 17 minutes - Loss
- Auburn: 13 minutes - Loss
- Texas: 13 minutes - Loss
- SMU: 21 minutes - Win
- Virginia: 11 minutes - Loss
- Kansas: 14 minutes - Loss
The pattern is hard to ignore. When Arceneaux plays 20+ minutes, NC State wins. When he doesn’t, especially against high-octane offenses, the results have been far less favorable.
Of course, this isn’t about pinning wins and losses solely on one player’s minutes. Basketball is more nuanced than that.
But Arceneaux’s presence gives NC State something it desperately needs in these matchups: defensive versatility. He can switch across positions, contest shots on the perimeter, and close out with the kind of speed and length that can disrupt rhythm shooters.
The challenge for Wade is balancing that defensive upside with the offensive flow. Taking someone like DJ Holloman off the floor-who creates rim pressure and forces defenses to collapse-can make the offense more predictable. But when the Wolfpack are getting carved up by elite offenses, the trade-off might be worth it.
This isn’t a call for a complete overhaul of the rotation. It’s about finding margins.
Buying a few extra possessions. Getting a few more stops.
And in games where every point matters, those little adjustments can be the difference between staying in the hunt and falling short.
With the ACC’s best still ahead on the schedule, NC State’s postseason hopes may hinge on more than just shot-making. It might come down to whether Wade trusts Arceneaux enough to unleash him for 20+ minutes a night. If history is any indication, that trust could pay off in a big way.