NC State’s road to a bowl game got a lot shakier after a flat showing against Wake Forest, and the computers are reflecting that. The Pack plunged 18 spots to No. 80 in SP+, and now the rest of the season looks like a grind just to get back to bowl eligibility.
On paper, the schedule still gives NC State a path. It’s soft enough to keep the possibility alive, but the margins are thin enough that every game feels like a swing game now. With three points added for home field, SP+ has the rest of the slate lined up this way:
at Stanford (SP+ No. 124): NCSU -10.5
vs. Cal (87): NCSU -4
vs. Duke (45): Duke -6.5
vs. Syracuse (78): NCSU -2
at FSU (54): FSU -10
at UNC (56): UNC -9
Stanford has been a mess lately, getting outscored 115-10 over its last two games, both on the road, and the Cardinal have scored seven points or fewer in four of six games. That makes the trip west one of the more favorable spots left on the schedule, even if the overall outlook is still bleak.
Half of NC State’s remaining opponents have been every bit as rough as the Pack, if not worse. The other half has shown enough competence to make things difficult. That split is why this season’s finish still feels wide open, even after the recent slide.
Computer projections are only part of the picture, though. Fan frustration has its own weight, and BTP’s proprietary Emoto-Sensatron O’Matrix technology is supposed to account for that in a revised set of lines.
In Other News...
NC State Gets An Early ACC Reality Check Fans Will Debate
The ACCs preseason basketball snapshot arrived with the usual mix of expectation and skepticism, and NC State landed squarely in the middle of the conversation. Along with the conferences predicted order of finish and preseason All-ACC teams, the leagues media votes also handed out individual honors, with Virginias Thijs De Ridder earning preseason Player of the Year and Dukes Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje taking Rookie of the Year.
For Wolfpack fans, the number beside their teams name will be the one that lingers, because it sets an early tone for how the league views NC State before a ball is tipped. Preseason polls are never a final word, but they do establish the first public benchmark, and in a conference where the margins are usually thin, that kind of placement tends to fuel debate long before the actual standings start to matter. [Read more 🡒]