Louisville has built its identity under Jeff Brohm around spending, transfers and offense that can overwhelm people in bunches. That formula has kept the Cardinals in the ACC contender conversation year after year, with at least nine wins in each of the last three seasons. This offseason was more of the same: more than 30 transfers arrived, and Louisville is again turning to a new starting quarterback, its fourth in as many years.
That quarterback is Lincoln Kienholz, a former Ohio State reserve who is adjusting to the job of being a full-time starter for the first time. He was rough in the first half of his first game, but since then he has been impressive. Kienholz benefits from playing behind one of the nation’s most explosive backfields, but he also brings something extra with his ability to create outside the pocket.
Louisville’s offense has still been a little messy at times because of problems up front. The offensive line has struggled to open things up on straight run plays, but the Cardinals can survive a lot of that because Keyjuan Brown and Isaac Brown are both home-run threats at running back. Louisville has leaned on them more this season than it did a year ago.
The result is an offense that can look electric or clunky depending on the down and distance. Louisville ranks among the worst teams in the country in havoc rate allowed, which means runs are getting stuffed far too often.
When opponents force the Cardinals into third down, those situations tend to be long ones, and Louisville’s late-down success rate is not strong. Put Kienholz in obvious passing situations and keep him trapped in the pocket, and he can look ordinary.
The problem for NC State is that its defense has had a hard time taking away explosive plays all season. Passing plays, running plays, it hasn’t mattered much.
Very few FBS defenses have been worse in that department. The Wolfpack will need to find a way to change that this week, even if Kienholz does not play, and there is no great reason to expect it.
Louisville’s defense has been almost as shaky. The secondary is dealing with injuries and mistakes, and that gives CJ Bailey and NC State a chance to finally attack downfield.
The Cardinals have been giving up explosives at a similar rate to State, both on the ground and through the air. Louisville has allowed four pass plays of more than 60 yards this season, while NC State’s offense has only one play over 30 yards.
So yes, this one has the feel of a game that could get weird in a hurry. Louisville has somehow only turned it over once this season, even though it is among the most penalized teams in the country.
If CJ Bailey can get through 60 minutes without giving the ball away and a couple of breaks swing State’s way, maybe there’s something there. More likely, though, it turns into the kind of messy, chaotic college football game that makes everybody groan and keep watching anyway.
In Other News...
Dave Doeren Loved How NC State Answered In Winning Time
Dave Doeren came away impressed with the way NC State handled the most important stretch of its 31-28 win over Louisville, pointing first to the teams focus and effort when the game tightened. After meeting with the media, the Wolfpack coach singled out CJ Bailey, Harvey Dyson III and the offensive line as central to the outcome, while also making sure to credit the home crowd for the energy it brought throughout the game.
Even with the victory in hand, Doeren did not sound ready to let the Wolfpack settle in too comfortably. He acknowledged there are still areas on defense that need to improve, a reminder that winning close games can expose as much as it rewards. For NC State, the challenge now is carrying over the poise it showed in winning time while cleaning up the details that nearly turned a good night into a tense one. [Read more 🡒]
NC State May Be Underselling Its Most Efficient Red Zone Weapon
Will Wilson has already carved out a very specific role for NC State, and it has been a productive one. The backup quarterback has turned limited offensive snaps into six rushing touchdowns, tying him for the ACC lead, while averaging around five yards per carry in short-yardage situations that have become his calling card.
NC State has clearly found a dependable red zone piece in Wilson, but the bigger question is whether the Wolfpack are using him to his full value. His effectiveness in tight spaces suggests there may be more room to expand how he is deployed, and for an offense that could use every edge near the goal line, that feels like a storyline worth watching. [Read more 🡒]
Harvey Dyson May Have Just Saved NC States Season
NC States season has had a familiar feel at times lately, with strong starts giving way to uneasy finishes, and Saturdays game against Louisville looked headed in that same direction after the Wolfpack faded after a sharp first half. But the defense found a defining moment when Harvey Dyson forced a fumble that NC State recovered, setting up the go-ahead field goal in a 31-28 win.
Dave Doeren made sure to single out Dyson after the game, praising the play in his postgame press conference, and it was easy to see why. In a stretch where NC State needed something to steady it, Dyson delivered the kind of snap that can change more than one result, giving the Wolfpack a win that could loom large as the season goes on. [Read more 🡒]